Premier League Outrights

With the Premier League off this week for an international break now looks an ideal time to take a look at how the outright markets are shaping up.

The title race is all but over and it is a case of simply when rather than if Man United reclaim the Premier League title. The real races are in the race for the Champions League places and at the bottom of the table.

In terms of relegation it is Reading who are the strong favourites to get relegated with bookmakers having the Royals as short as 1/16 (general) for the drop. If you think a new manager can turn things around and keep Reading up then you can get 9/1 (bet365). Both them and QPR sit on 23 points which is some seven away from Aston Villa in fourth bottom. QPR though are at least showing some signs of life and they can be backed at 4/1 (BetVictor/ladbrokes) to stay up.

The recommended bet in the staying up market is in backing Wigan to avoid the drop at evens with Coral. Though they currently sit third bottom on 27 three behind Villa they do have a game in hand and have won four of their last five in all competitions. History has shown that Roberto Martinez knows how to get his side to peak at the right time of the season and with some winnable games ahead they look the value.

If not Wigan then who will go down? Well the obvious team to me looks like being Sunderland. A few weeks ago we tipped them up for the drop at much bigger prices than the 4/1 (paddy Power/ladbrokes) on offer now. That being said the 4/1 is still a very decent price as Sunderland have a tough run of fixtures coming up with Man United, Chelsea, Everton and Newcastle still to play. The Black Cats were awful at home to 10 men Norwich at the weekend as they failed to create chances of note despite the Canaries playing with a reduced man for an hour. Sunderland are just four points ahead of a Wigan side with a game in hand.

It is hard to know where the turnaround will come as it not like they have injured players returning or the squad depth to shake-up the team.

At the other end of the table the race for the Champions League slots has Man City in second on 59 points and it will be a shock to see them fail to make the top four. Chelsea meanwhile are on 55 points from 29 games, Tottenham have 54 points from 30 games, Arsenal have 50 points from 29 games while Everton have 48 points from 29 games. Chelsea are 1/6 (Coral) for a top four finish. Arsenal are 5/6 (betfred/BetVictor/paddy Power) after a run of four wins from their last five has seen them close the gap on Tottenham to four with a game in hand.That being said though Tottenham still have the points on the board and Arsenal have to win that game in hand. I think evens (bet365) is more than generous considering the advantage is still with Tottenham. Those who think Everton can finish in the top four meanwhile can get 12/1 (BetVictor).

Finally a quick of word note a handful of bookmakers have already priced up the Premier League betting for next season. For me it is much to early to take a bet on this market but is interesting to note the prices on offer. United are the 13/8 (bet365/boylesports/BetVictor) favourites for the trophy while City are 15/8 (bet365/BetVictor), Chelsea are 5/1 (boylesports/betfred), Arsenal are 16/1 (betfred), Liverpool are 20/1 (Bet365/betfred) while Tottenham are also 20/1 (betfred).

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Sunderland to be relegated from the Premier League, 4/1 (paddy Power/ladbrokes)
SILVER: Wigan NOT to be relegated from the Premier League, Evens (Coral)
BRONZE: Tottenham to finish in the top four, Evens (Bet365)

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21/03/2013     © Frixo 2024