Del Potro false favourite in match of the round

The Wimbledon men`s singles match between David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro is the most competitive according to bookmakers but there is a strong case for backing the Spaniard outsider to beat the Argentinian favourite.

Ferrer is generally available at odds of 11-10 - Del Potro is 8-11 with a large number of layers - and, frankly, the match-betting market does not make a great deal of sense.

First, Ferrer and Del Potro have met six times during their respective professional careers. The Spaniard has won their most recent two clashes to lead 4-2 and, also, he prevailed 7-6 6-1 when they met on grass in the Netherlands in 2008.

Second, Ferrer`s recent form has been spectacular and better than that of Del Potro. The Spaniard`s last five completed events have seen him register one title win, one runner-up finish, two semi-final appearances and one quarter-final appearance. The 30-year-old has not lost to anyone other than Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal since April 2012.

Third, Ferrer has a superior grass-court record to that of Del Potro. The Spaniard has won 70 per cent of his lifetime matches on grass. The Argentinian is no slouch on the green stuff but his 63% figure is not as good as his opponent.

And fourth, Ferrer`s Wimbledon form, both this year and in recent times, is a notch above that of Del Potro.

There is no doubt that Ferrer versus Del Potro is a match that could go either way but the Spaniard deserves more respect from bookmakers. The Australian Open, French Open and US Open semi-finalist should be the favourite, probably at around the 4-6 mark, so snap up the 11-10 that is there.

The other seven favourites in the Wimbledon men`s singles fourth round should make the last eight but there is a bet in the match between Marin Cilic and home hero Murray.

Britain`s number one is around 6-5 to beat Cilic in straight sets. Those are incredibly short odds when one considers how tough the Croatian`s serve is to break on a grass court.

That Cilic won at Queen`s Club demonstrates that he knows how to play on the fastest of tennis surfaces and it would be a surprise if he did not take at least one set off Murray or force the Brit to hold his never in tie-break situations.

There would be nothing wrong with backing Cilic to win at around 9-2 and Murray to win either 3-1 (around 5-2) or 3-2 (around 13-2), with the crunched odds working out at around 4-7. But perhaps the value option would be backing Murray to win in either four or five sets at around the 11-8 mark.

In the Wimbledon women`s singles fourth round, the match that catches the eye from a betting perspective is the one between unheralded player Tamira Paszek and Robert Vinci.

Queen`s Club champion Paszek, who beat Caroline Wozniacki 5-7 7-6 6-4 in the first round of Wimbledon, is in the form of her life and leads Vinci 1-0 thanks to a 6-4 6-3 win in the opening round of the 2010 Hobart event on a hard court.

Bookmakers are quoting Paszek at around 4-7 to earn a quarter-final showdown against either Ana Ivanovic or Victoria Azarenka. Those are more than fair odds.

Go To bet365

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02/07/2012     © Frixo 2024