Almagro and Pironkova are the value outsiders

There are four big underdogs for the US Open men`s singles fourth round matches scheduled to take place at Flushing Meadows on Monday and one of them is well over the odds.

Nicolas Almagro is the US Open men`s singles fourth round roughie in question and, at around 100-30 to prevent Tomas Berdych reaching the New York quarter-finals, the Spaniard is worth a small bet given head-to-head and recent data.

Almagro trails Berdych 3-6 irrespective of surface but he is down only 1-2 on hard courts and he could just as easily be up 2-1. The Spaniard lost his first hard-court match against the Czech 2-6 2-6 in Cincinnati last year. Since then he has gone down 6-4 6-7 6-7 6-7 in an epic 2012 Australian Open men`s singles fourth round clash and, most recently, won 6-4 6-0 on an Indian Wells hard court in a top ATP Tour event.

Bookmakers are correct to make Berdych the favourite but he should be nearer 1-2 than the 1-4 quotes that are around for punters to take. Almagro is worth a bet, either at 100-30 to qualify for the US Open men`s singles last eight by any score or at around 6-1 to do so in four or five sets.

Staying in the US Open men`s singles fourth round, Roger Federer leads Mardy Fish 7-1 overall and 5-1 on hard courts so the Swiss superstar should justify favouritism in that match but he is not worth backing at around 1-14. Likewise, Andy Murray and Marin Cilic should defeat Milos Raonic and Martin Klizan respectively but the odds looks about right.

Turning one`s focus to the US Open women`s singles fourth round, Agnieszka Radwanska is more than fairly priced at around 1-2 to defeat Roberta Vinci for the fifth time.

Radwanska is up 4-0 on Vinci, including a 2-6 6-2 7-6 win on a New Haven hard court three years ago. One would have liked more hard-court head-to-head form on which to base one`s judgement but the odds on offer compensate for that. The Pole should be at least as short as 1-3 to beat the Italian.

Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber should reward US Open women`s singles fourth round favourite backers versus Andrea Hlavackova and Sara Errani respectively but Ana Ivanovic may struggle at pretty short odds against Tsvetana Pironkova.

Ivanovic is around 1-3 to eliminate her unseeded opponent, a tight quote considering that the Serbian lost 4-6 7-5 2-6 to the Bulgarian when they met for the first and only time in Rome in 2008. Yes, it was four years ago and the match took place on a clay court but odds of 1-3 are unattractive about someone as inconsistent as Ivanovic at the best of times, not least when she has a losing head-to-head record.

Pironkova, who has dropped only one tiebreak set in making her way to the US Open women`s singles fourth round, is worth a small bet at around 11-4 in the circumstances.

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03/09/2012     © Frixo 2024