Tough to bet against Tuesdays singles favourites

Head-to-head data makes it impossible to get away from the half a dozen favourites who are scheduled to feature in US Open singles action at Flushing Meadows on Tuesday.

The previous results are particularly compelling for the US Open women`s singles quarter-final matches featuring Victoria Azarenka, Samantha Stosur, Maria Sharapova and Marion Bartoli as the competition gets really serious.

Azarenka and Stosur have met five times before and the Russian has dominated the Australian, winning all five matches and not dropping a set, with the clashes taking place on hard courts since 2008. The draw has been very kind to the reigning US Open women`s singles champion but it would appear that Stosur`s luck is about to run out.

Bookmakers are offering odds of around 8-11 that Azarenka knocks out the 2011 US Open women`s singles title winner in straight sets and that, on the face of it, looks more than fair. The Russian has lost only 10 games in getting to the last eight. Stosur has lost more than double that number.

Sharapova is an even hotter favourite against Bartoli and with good reason. The Russian has won three career matches versus the Italian, all in straight sets, and two of them were on hard courts. Sharapova is around 8-15 to win 2-0.

Over in the US Open men`s singles it is still the fourth round, with Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro and Janko Tipsarevic holding most of the aces in their New York ties against Stanislas Wawrinka, Richard Gasquet, Andy Roddick and Philipp Kohlschreiber respectively.

Djokovic leads Wawrinka 9-2 irrespective of surface, 4-1 on hard courts and 2-0 on outdoor hard courts such as those at Flushing Meadows. Also, the Serbian has gone from being down 0-2 to being up 9-2 and both of his outdoor hard-court wins have been in straight sets. Djokovic has made the Swiss man pay for winning their first two meetings back in 2006.

Bookmakers are all over Djokovic, making him around 1-16 to qualify for the US Open men`s singles quarter-final and around 4-9 to reach the last eight via a 3-0 defeat of Wawrinka. The odds are right so there is no value play.

Ferrer has a 7-1 advantage over Gasquet, or 5-1 if one only includes ties played on hard courts. A strange quirk of their rivalry is that all eight matches have been won in straight sets and the Spaniard has won the last four in a row. Ferrer is around 7-4 to beat his French opponent 3-0 and that is interesting in light of the head-to-head data.

Del Potro, the 2009 US Open men`s singles champion, leads Andy Roddick 3-1 lifetime, all of them on hard courts. One note of caution, though. The Argentinian racked up his three victories over the American in 2008 and 2009, with Roddick taking out their latest encounter 18 months ago. Del Potro deserves favouritism but it is probably a no-bet match.

Finally, Tipsarevic has won two of his three completed ties versus Kohlschreiber. Unfortunately, none of them have been on a hard court so the head-to-head statistics are only of limited value. Again, the prices look bang on the money.

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03/09/2012     © Frixo 2024