Juve and Los Che overpriced for home victories

European giants Juventus and Valencia are very fair prices to win their UEFA Champions League home games against Shakhtar Donetsk and Lille respectively on Tuesday.

Juventus, last season`s undefeated Italian Serie A champion, is yet to lose a match in any competition this term despite seeing veteran club legend Alessandro Del Piero depart Turin for, of all places, Sydney and its team in the A-League.

Shakhtar is just as dominant in the Ukrainian Premier League and sits at the top of the ladder after 10 rounds with 10 wins and a positive goal difference of 29. But the UEFA Champions League is a different ball game and Shakhtar`s form away from home in it is not really up to scratch.

Last term and the one before it, Shakhtar played nine UEFA Champions League road matches. It won four of those games but only one of them was against a high-quality team. What is interesting ahead of Shakhtar`s trip to Turin is that it lost 1-5 at Arsenal, 1-5 at Barcelona and 1-2 at Porto. One would rank Juventus closer to Arsenal than to Porto so there is a simple, rational case for suggesting that the Italian side ought to beat the Ukrainian team by about two goals.

Juventus is generally available at 8-13 to build upon its 2-2 draw at Chelsea with three points from its home match versus Shakhtar. Take those odds because one could argue that anything over 1-2 represents excellent value.

Valencia lies 10th in the Spanish La Liga standings after six rounds of its domestic championship but it has had an incredibly tough start to the season, with its three away games being Real Madrid, Barcelona and Mallorca. Valencia has done well to have eight points and its home form is excellent, with only one loss in its last 11 matches.

The Mestalla is one of Europe`s most atmospheric grounds, one at which away sides are intimidated by more than 40,000 screaming supporters of the home team. It is exactly the type of place that Lille does not want to visit right now given its atrocious form since the season kicked off.

But the UEFA Champions League sends Lille, without a win in normal time of any of its last nine games, to the Mestalla and Valencia is over the odds at around 4-6 to get the job done. Like Juventus, Valencia should be 1-2 or shorter.

Away victories in the UEFA Champions League are difficult to earn yet four of Tuesday`s eight matches feature odds-on road favourites. Consequently, there must be some value available in backing one or more of those games to end either all square or with the home side in front.

Oddly, the match featuring the biggest outsider is the one that appeals most in terms of a draw bet. Nordsjaelland is around 9-1 to beat Chelsea in Denmark and, while the team based in Farum probably does not have what it takes to beat the UEFA Champions League title holder, it should not be 4-1 to get a point out of its home game against the Blues.

Nordsjaelland is unbeaten in its last 12 home matches and, although the UEFA Champions League game has been switched to Copenhagen`s Parken, it will still feel like a home game for the Danish Superliga side. Chelsea won European football`s top club prize last term but it did so with a normal-time away record of one win, four draws and two losses.

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04/10/2012     © Frixo 2024