Berdych to take a set or two off Federer

There is a way to back US Open men`s singles top seed Roger Federer at odds against to win his quarter-final tie versus Tomas Berdych that has the support of historical data.

Federer is odds against to beat Berdych in either four or five sets, with the two options available at around 5-2 and 7-1 respectively. Couple them and one can get just under 6-4. That option is much more attractive than the general 1-5 available about the Swiss superstar winning the match.

There is no shortage of head-to-head form to analyse ahead of the US Open men`s singles quarter-final clash between Federer and Berdych. The players have met 15 times during their respective careers, with the Swiss leading 11-4 irrespective of court and 4-2 on hard ones. But scratch beneath the surface and one finds interesting trends.

For starters, Berdych has won three of his last six matches against Federer. Few big-priced underdogs can claim a record as good as that. And even when the Czech gives way to the Swiss, usually it is only after scaring the 17-time Grand Slam singles champion and taking a set off the master.

Berdych has won one or more sets in each of his last seven meetings with Federer so one should not be taking the short odds about the five-time US Open men`s singles title winner advancing to the last four of this year`s tournament in straight sets. The value bet is Federer 3-1 or 3-2.

Andy Murray and Marin Cilic lock horns in the other US Open men`s singles quarter-final tie scheduled for Wednesday. The Briton leads his Croatian opponent 6-1 but only 2-1 on hard courts. That said, Murray thrashed Cilic 7-5 6-2 6-3 on a Wimbledon grass court earlier this year and, as such, should justify warm favouritism. It is a no-bet match, though.

Turning one`s attention to US Open women`s singles, Serena Williams will be confident of getting past Ana Ivanovic and reaching her seventh Flushing Meadows semi-final. Bookmakers are confident, too, with the American trading at around 1-16 to make it four wins from four matches versus the Serbian.

There is no positive betting angle on the Williams-Ivanovic tussle. The American has not dropped a set in her three wins over the Serbians but bookmakers have got that covered, with odds of around 1-4 about Williams winning in straight sets.

A more interesting US Open women`s singles quarter-final tie from a betting perspective is the one between Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci, the Italians who play doubles together.

Errani looks like going off the slight favourite and she leads Vinci 3-2 irrespective of surface having won their last three encounters. However, Vinci is up 2-1 on hard courts and that may tempt some punters to back her.

To be honest, one could make a case for either Errani or Vinci but neither argument would be compelling because of the contradictory data. It is a match best watched.

Value bets are getting harder to find as the US Open singles competitions approach their finals but odds-against quotes about Federer beating Berdych in either four or five sets are very attractive given the history of the players.

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05/09/2012     © Frixo 2024