Barca overpriced to win El Clasico

Back Barcelona to close the El Clasico gap on Real Madrid by winning the 165th Spanish La Liga meeting of the teams in what is the world`s biggest club football rivalry.

Currently Barca trails Real 65-69 with 30 draws but it is a good bet to beat its traditional enemy at odds of around 10-11, which are generous based on this season`s results.

Remarkably, Barcelona and Real Madrid have had four common fixtures in the first six rounds of this term`s Spanish La Liga so it is easy to compare how they are travelling.

At home, Barca has beaten Granada 2-0 and Valencia 1-0, while away from Camp Nou it has defeated Getafe 4-1 and Sevilla 3-2. At home, Real has beaten Granada 3-0 and drawn 1-1 with Valencia, while away from the Santiago Bernabeu it has lost 1-2 to Getafe and 0-1 to Sevilla. Based on those results, Barcelona is too big at just under even money.

Furthermore, Barca has the benefit of having played its UEFA Champions League match in Portugal on Tuesday night, whereas Real Madrid had to wait until Wednesday night before playing in the Netherlands. Those extra 24 hours of recovery could be vital in a frenetic Barcelona versus Real Madrid clash.

It should be an entertaining El Clasico because Real Madrid is eight points behind Barca and, according to none other than Real superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, it cannot afford to drop another point if it is to retain the Spanish La Liga title that it won thanks to a 100-point haul last season.

If Ronaldo is on the money, Real Madrid is going to adopt a positive approach to its El Clasico away assignment and that should result in a festival of open, attacking football and, unless both goalkeepers have blinders, lots of goals. After all, Barcelona may be great going forward but its defensive record is something that would attract greater commentary if it was losing matches 2-3 rather than winning them 3-2.

Sadly, while bookmakers have underestimated the likelihood of Barca winning Sunday`s El Clasico, they have got their mathematics about the most popular goals-related betting markets correct. Each of the last eight El Clasico games, irrespective of competition, has featured at least three goals but the best price about over 2.5 goals is around 4-7. And around 4-7 is the best price available about both sides scoring at least one goal, something that has happened in each of the last nine El Clasico matches. That is a shame.

Lionel Messi is the centre of attention whenever Barcelona plays and, believe it or not, the diminutive Argentine is odds on across the board to score at least one goal in El Clasico. The world`s best footballer - sorry, Ronaldo - has scored for Barca in five of his last 10 El Clasico games.

Therefore, Messi could be worth supporting at around 7-2 to open the scoring, while there is a decent chance that there will be fewer than 22 players on the pitch at the final whistle. Four of the last 10 El Clasico matches have featured at least one red card and sometimes more.

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05/10/2012     © Frixo 2024