Orfevre set to strike Arc gold

The Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe is, according to most ratings authorities, the world`s most consistently high-class horse race but this year`s edition has been weakened by the late withdrawals of ante-post favourites Danedream and Nathaniel.

Danedream was denied the chance to defend the Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe title that she won emphatically 12 months ago when swamp fever hit Cologne`s racecourse and German vets banned her from travelling to Longchamp. And Nathaniel was found to have an abnormally high temperature, leaving his connections with no alternative other than to scratch him.

The withdrawals of Danedream and Nathaniel, plus the booking of Frankie Dettori to ride shock declaration Camelot, have turned Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe betting on its head in the days leading up to the Group One event over 2,400 metres that is billed as not so much a race as a monument.

Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe punters have backed Camelot, the winner of the English 1,000 Guineas, the English Derby and the Irish Derby, into favouritism at around 3-1, with the Dettori factor helping to push him above his 17 rivals.

Camelot is bidding to restore his tarnished reputation after failing in his English Triple crown attempt three weeks ago when he finished three-quarters of a length adrift of 25-1 outsider Encke after his jockey, Joseph O`Brien, gave him a stinker of a ride and too much to do in the closing stages.

The Ballydoyle camp has decided to take a chance with its three-time classic winner because of the late, unexpected withdrawals of Danedream and Nathaniel. Victory in the Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe would result in Camelot being viewed as Europe`s champion three-year-old and repair a lot of the damage that his defeat in the English St Leger created.

Camelot has a good chance but Japanese Triple crown winner Orfevre has a better one and he is the value bet in a poor Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe in which many runners are trading at well under their true odds for a variety of reasons.

Orfevre won his Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe lead-up race, the Prix Foy at Longchamp, in fine style for a horse having his first run outside Japan and who would not have been suited by the slow pace that the small field went for the first mile. The four-year-old son of Stay Gold quickened really well under Christophe Soumillon, racing to the lead with just over a furlong to go and winning the Group Two event more comfortably than the official one-length margin.

Guaranteed to stay every centimetre of the 2,400m trip in what is likely to be a truly run Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe - he has winning form over 3,000m - and expected to improve upon his Prix Foy performance, Orfevre is the one to beat.

One of the Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe trends is that, since 2000, only two horses have come off a loss to take it out. Orfevre is one of only half a dozen runners in this year`s field who won their last race, with the others being Great Heavens, Masterstroke, Mikhail Glinka, Saonois and Shareta.

Great Heavens is taking her chance in the Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe at the last minute, Masterstroke is under the odds simply because Andre Fabre trains him, Mikhail Glinka has a lot to find and Shareta has not beaten a colt when winning one of her five races. Saonois is a fair chance, though.

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05/10/2012     © Frixo 2024