England and Hungary to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0

England kicks off its 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil qualifying campaign in Moldova and the Chisinau clash is one of those matches in which correct-score betting comes to the fore.

Bookmakers have installed England as the hot game favourite at around 30-100 and, for most punters, those odds are too short to use other than as the banker in an accumulator.

But it is possible to back England at decent odds by having a crack at one or more of the correct scores because, even now, bookmakers leave themselves wide open when the right kind of favourites face the right kind of underdogs.

England is the right kind of favourite. It has not scored more than three goals in a match since beating Bulgaria 4-0 at Wembley Stadium in September 2010. That is a run of 20 games in which England has not netted four or more times.

And one has to go back to June 2009 when England defeated Kazakhstan 4-0 in Almaty to find the last time it scored more than three goals in a match played outside its own country. That equates to a run of 19 low-scoring games.

Moldova is the right kind of underdog. It has lost its two previous matches against England by 3-0 and 4-0 scorelines and it has failed to score a goal in any of its last five games, which have been against Georgia (away), Belarus (home), Venezuela (away), El Salvador (neutral in the United States of America) and, most recently, Albania (away).

So one has a hot favourite that, in all likelihood, will beat a long-priced outsider without conceding a goal and scoring too many itself. A match perfect for picking the most likely correct scores and backing them for value.

England 1-0 is available at odds of around 11-2 and so, too, is England 2-0. England 3-0 is a general 7-1 chance. Those are the three correct scores on which punters should focus.

Backing England to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 works out at better than 5-4 and worse than 11-8. That looks the best plan of attack. Conservative punters who want the insurance of an England 4-0 win can get that at around 14-1, which still makes the combination bet work out at better than evens.

Of the other matches on the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil qualifying coupon, the next-best one on which to try a correct-score bet is Andorra versus Hungary in Andorra.

The home team has not scored in any of its last nine games and the away side, while around 1-14 to travel home with three points, are unlikely to run up a cricket score.

Hungary has not scored more than three goals in a match outside its own country since 2004 and that includes away games versus the likes of Azerbaijan, Luxembourg and San Marino. Andorra is ranked seven places above San Marino.

Backing Hungary to win 1-0 (around 17-2), 2-0 (around 5-1) or 3-0 (around 5-1) works out at slightly better than 5-4. One would have to argue that the probability of Hungary beating Andorra 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 is greater than the 44 per cent chance on offer through the three correct scores.

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06/09/2012     © Frixo 2024