Pole means everything in Italian Grand Prix

The key to winning the Italian Grand Prix at Monza is to start the race from pole position so be patient and wait until Saturday`s final qualifying session ends before betting on the outcome of Sunday`s main event.

Since the redesign of Hockenheim, Monza has stood alone on the Formula One calendar as a high-speed circuit. Low-drag aerodynamic packages will be on display as teams set up their cars to go faster than they have before this year.

Recent Italian Grand Prix history suggests that qualifying will have a significant impact on the race itself, with no fewer than nine of the last dozen pole sitters going on to collect maximum points. Two of those fastest qualifiers did not finish - Juan Pablo Montoya in 2002 and Lewis Hamilton in 2009 - while Kimi Raikkonen was the 2006 runner-up.

So the no-brainer Italian Grand Prix betting tactic is to watch the drivers battle for places on the Monza grid and step in after qualifying is over and back the pole sitter provided that the odds on offer are fair and reasonable.

Based on the last dozen editions of the Italian Grand Prix, dating back to 2000, the true odds of the pole sitter making the most of his qualifying performance are around 1-3. While anything above that price, strictly speaking, could be said to represent value, that may be pushing it a little bit.

Certainly, though, if the Italian Grand Prix pole sitter is one of the big guns and the odds about him winning the race are bigger than, say, 4-6, there is a value play out there.

Patience is a virtue that not all punters possess. If one does not want to wait until Saturday before opening one`s wallet and placing an Italian Grand Prix bet, the best advice is to back Jenson Button at odds of around 5-1.

The McLaren team of Button and Hamilton looks like the one to beat right now. The Woking-based outfit has had the fastest at each of the last two races, with Button on pole in Belgium and Hamilton first on the grid in Hungary.

Bookmakers are quoting Hamilton at much lower Italian Grand Prix odds than Button - the 2008 Formula One champion is around 100-30 - and that does make all that much sense.

Button has a far superior Italian Grand Prix record than his McLaren colleague, finishing second to Rubens Barrichello in 2009, Fernando Alonso in 2010 and Sebastian Vettel in 2011, giving him the best numbers of anyone over the last three years. The 2009 Formula One title winner should be much closer to Hamilton in the betting on the Monza race.

So there one has it. It is imperative to qualify well for the Italian Grand Prix, with pole sitters winning more than often than not in recent times and it almost unheard of for a driver to win from anywhere other than the first three rows of the grid. Go fast on Saturday or go home.

Either back the Italian Grand Prix pole sitter once his identity becomes known or have a small wager on Button before the drivers start registering their hot laps.

Go To bet365

#Ad

06/09/2012     © Frixo 2024