FA Cup outrights 5th Jan

When looking at the FA Cup outrights I tend to break it down into three sections firstly looking for one of the big teams to back, secondly finding another Premier League side at each-way value and finally a third side from the lower divisions at a much bigger price with the view to laying off the bet at a later date.

THE BIG GUNS: Firstly the basic stats in just one of the last 26 seasons (2007-08 Portsmouth) has the FA Cup been won by someone other than Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool or Everton. This is reflected in the bookmakers odds as all seven of these teams are 14/1 or under. Man City are 11/2 (BetVictor/You Win) favourites yet I still think this represents the best value. City do not have the European distractions that Man United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, Arsenal do. City have a very winnable third round game (home to Watford) while Chelsea (Southampton) and Man U (West Ham) both have difficult away games.

City have the squad depth to cope with this tournament and Mancini and the players will know that this represents the best chance this season of some silverware. If United and Chelsea do get knocked out in the third round (and it is possible) then this price for City will get much shorter.

THE REST OF THE PREMIER LEAGUE: The first thing I look to do when narrowing the list of teams is to remove those with games against fellow Premier League sides as these are tough too call. This eliminates Southampton (home to Chelsea), West Ham (home to Man United), Swansea (home to Arsenal) and QPR and West Brom who meet at Loftus Road.

I also want to remove Newcastle who have a difficult game at Brighton, Norwich face a Peterborough side who have picked up some form in the Championship while Sunderland are at Bolton. These sides might look more interesting if they survive round three and get a nice fourth round draw but at the moment they should be crossed off.

This leaves us with just five teams, Wigan (at home to Bournemouth), Reading (away to Crawley), Villa (home to Ipswich), Fulham (home to Blackpool) and Stoke at Palace. I think Reading and Wigan could both come unstuck here against decent League One sides. Villa have the distraction of the League Cup and worries over relegation which might make Lambert rest a few. It comes down to Fulham and Stoke and it is Stoke I like the look of most. Although a trip to Palace is not easy I think Ian Holloway will rotate his squad for the game as promotion is the main aim for Palace. Stoke are 50/1 (Bet Victor/You Win-though You Win do not pay EW). The Potters look safe from the threat of relegation, have made the final before and will be hungry to return. Even better is the fact that no side has won at the Britannia this season in the Premier League.

THE BIG OUTSIDERS: Cardiff and Millwall have both made the FA Cup final in recent years from the Championship while Bradford are in the semi-finals of the League Cup. So finding value at big price is very possible.

I think Burnley at 500/1 (BetVictor) look the value call here as a back to lay option. Eleven points from relegation means they look quite safe so do not need to worry about rotation. Burnley are a well organised side who carry a goal threat in Charlie Austin and with a winnable game at out of sorts Barnsley in round three looking good outsiders.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Man City to win FA Cup, 11/2 (BetVictor/You Win)
SILVER: Stoke EW to win the FA Cup, 50/1 (Bet Victor)
BRONZE: Burnley back to lay at 500/1 (BetVictor)

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07/01/2013     © Frixo 2024