FA Cup Preview

Betting on the FA Cup Third Round is tricky as you need to take into account not just what team is the best team but which manager will take the competition seriously. It is best therefore to keep the stakes smaller than in most weeks.

Brighton take on Newcastle Saturday lunchtime in the first of four live FA Cup games this weekend. The Championship side are difficult to beat at home (losing just one of their last seven) though this is reflected in the price as they are just 15/8 (Blue Sq/888 Sport) for victory against Newcastle with the Magpies 13/8 (pinnacle) and the draw 53/21 (pinnacle). Newcastle are scoring goals but also struggling to keep them out so both teams to score looks the bet. This bet would have paid in seven of the last nine Newcastle away games and in three of the last five Brighton home games and is available at 4/6 (bet365).

The evening game Saturday sees West Ham at home to Man Utd in all Premier League encounter. This is not any easy game for United and with Ferguson likely to rotate his team I could not be backing them at 8/11 (BetVictor). Those who fancy West Ham can get them at 9/2 (Skybet/Totesport/betfred) while the draw is a best priced 41/14 (Pinnacle). Ricardo Vaz Te has missed a couple of sitters in recent weeks though he has been getting himself into the positions and he must convert one of those chances soon. He is 7/2 (general) in the anytime scorer market and this could be the bet if he makes the starting 11.

Into Sunday and Swansea take on Arsenal with the Welsh side entering the game knowing they beat the Gunners at the Emirates this season. The 5/2 (boylesports) are offering on the home win seems generous as Swansea are a good side and have a good home record. Better still Swansea are 6/4 (ladbrokes) in the draw no bet market and this looks the way to play the game. Those who disagree and want to take on Swansea can get the draw at 34/13 (Pinnacle) and the Arsenal win at 5/4 (general).

Also Sunday sees Liverpool travel to Conference Premier side Mansfield. It is 14/1 (boylesports/Bet Victor) that Mansfield produce a huge shock here while the draw is available at 6/1 (Boylesports) and an away victory is a best priced 1/4 (Willian Hill). Liverpool have hit a bit of form in the Premier League so it will be a massive shock if they come unstuck here. It might pay therefore to back them at 8/5 (Coral) to win both halves.

The best bet in the non-live games is to take Peterborough at 11/4 (betfred/ladbrokes) to defeat Norwich at London Road. These two sides are not a million miles apart in geography and this should give the game a little extra spice. Peterborough enter the game in good form with four wins from their last five while Norwich have lost their last four. Against West Ham the Canaries looked very tired and with Holt and Morison expected to miss the game it could be tough for Norwich to get among the goals against free scoring Posh. I also like the look of Stoke to go through against Crystal Palace with a Stoke victory available at 52/35 (Pinnacle). As mentioned in the outrights piece we are tipping up to make the final and although Palace is a tough game I fully expect Stoke to come through. Ian Holloway will likely rest a number of players for this match as promotion to the Premier League remains the priority.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Stoke to beat Crystal Palace, 52/35 (Pinnacle)
SILVER: Peterborough to beat Norwich, 11/4 (betfred/ladbrokes)
BRONZE: Swansea in draw no bet market v Arsenal, 6/4 (ladbrokes)

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07/01/2013     © Frixo 2024