League Cup Preview 8th Jan

Chelsea are the 4/7 (general) favourites for the League Cup which reaches the semi-final stage this week. The Blues are one of three Premier League sides that make up the last four along with League Two side Bradford. Aston Villa at 3/1 (sportingbet) are the second favourites while Swansea are 6/1 (general) and Bradford are the 33/1 (general) outsiders.

Tuesday night sees the first leg encounter between Bradford and Aston Villa which takes place at from Valley Parade. Wigan and Arsenal have already been knocked out of the competition by Bradford so Premier League strugglers Aston Villa should hold no fear for them. Bookmakers have the Bantams 50/13 (pinnacle) to win the first leg while the draw is 3/1 (bet365/BetVictor) and the home win is 4/5 (general). I quite like the look of small stakes on a first leg draw as Bradford will give everything they have while Villa will know that a draw is not the worst result possible with a second leg at Villa Park to come.

Another bet I like the look of in this game is Andreas Weimann in the scorer markets. The Austrian has netted in four of his last six and seven of his last ten and is 7/4 (Skybet) to net at anytime and 6/1 (general) to score first which looks decent value. Weimann was not in the starting lineup for the FA Cup game with Ipswich this weekend which means he is likely to be in the starting eleven here. Those wary of the two legged nature of these ties might want to consider the to qualify market where you can get 1/7 (ladbrokes) that Villa go through to the final or the 6/1 (bet365/BetVictor) that Bradford do.

Chelsea take on Swansea Wednesday night in the second League Cup semi-final and the Blues are 3/10 (Skybet) to qualify while Swansea are 11/4 (william hill). Those looking for a bet just on the first leg will see that Chelsea are 6/13 (pinnacle) to win the game at Stamford Bridge while the draw is available at 115/29 (Pinnacle) and an away win is 15/2 (Blue Sq/888 Sport). The head to head record suggest this could be a close encounter with the last two meetings ending drawn though both these results came at Swansea. They have yet to meet this season in the league at Stamford Bridge with the result last season being a comfortable 4-1 victory to Chelsea.

The first goalscorer market is headed by Dembe Ba who is not cup-tied as he did not feature in the competition this season for Newcastle and he is 7/2 (paddy Power) to grab the first goal here while Fernando Torres is a 9/2 (paddy Power/Coral) chance. It is difficult to back a Chelsea player with confidence until we see the team-sheet as Rafa Benitez is keen on rotation. Those looking for a Swansea player to open the scoring can get Michu at 9/1 (paddy power) or Danny Graham at 10/1 (general).

One bet I like the look of in this game is the under 2.5 goals at 13/9 (Pinnacle) as games at this stage tend to be quite tight to start with and this would have paid in four of the last six League Cup semi-final first legs. This is also backed by the stats of Swansea who tend to keep things tight when playing one of the big sides.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Draw between Bradford and Aston Villa in first leg, 3/1 (bet365/BetVictor)
SILVER: Under 2.5 goals between Chelsea and Swansea, 13/9 (Pinnacle)
BRONZE: Andreas Weimann to score v Bradford, first 6/1 (general), anytime 7/4 (Skybet)

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07/01/2013     © Frixo 2024