League Two HT Report

I find Martin Allen a little like that toy at Christmas which you are really excited to get only by Boxing Day it has started to annoy you and show limitations. Full respect to the man for the job he has done in the first half of the season in putting Gillingham five points clear at the top of League Two. However, I am not convinced by him or his Gillingham side and think 6/5 (Totesport/betfred/paddy Power) is a terrible price with a number of games still to go. In recent weeks Gillingham have started to stutter winning just two of their last seven games.

So who should we take on Gillingham with? Port Vale are currently in second place and are 6/1 (bet365/Coral) second favourites. Micky Adams is a decent manager at this level and if Vale can keep a hold of the goal threat of Tom Pope then they could go close. With just two defeats in their last 14 league games Vale are obviously a difficult side to beat and I could not put anyone off backing them. Rotherham at 7/1 (general) must also be dangerous as in Steve Evans they have a manager who knows this division well and have the money to invest if need be.

The prices start to rise after this with Southend 12/1 (general) chances and it is the Shrimpers that I like the look of in the betting markets. Southend are on 13 game unbeaten run in all competitions and if they can keep a hold of the classy Britt Assombalonga then they should be in the mix at the end of the season.

Others expected to go well are Bradford at 16/1 (general) though I would be a little bit worried that the League Cup semi-final with Aston Villa will prove too much of a distraction for them. Cheltenham are 14/1 (Coral) though memories still linger of a poor end to the season last year and as such I would probably swerve them. Fleetwood meanwhile are 22/1 (bet365) though with no win in their last four and the strange decision to sack manager Micky Mellon they do not convince.

Switching to the promotion market and like the other leagues this could represent huge value betting wise as any number of teams are capable of getting a run together to put themselves into the play-off picture. Wycombe have won four and drawn one of their last five to get themselves on 26 points and into 18th place. The last remaining play-off slot is currently held by Exeter in seventh who have 34 points. The 50/1 (general) on Wycombe to get promoted then looks like good value considering this is a side who just last season were in League One. The chairboys can also be taken at 16/1 (BetVictor) to finish in the top seven.

In the relegation market and bookmakers make this a six team battle between Barnet 4/5 (general), AFC Wimbledon (5/4-bet365/Skybet/BetVictor), Bristol Rovers (10/3-Skybet/BetVictor), Aldershot (10/3-BetVictor/Coral), Plymouth (6/1-BetVictor/Coral) and Accrington 13/2 (bet365). AFC Wimbledon look the call here as they are on a terrible run of form with just one win in their last eight.

The top scorer market is headed by Tom Pope with 19 goals and he is as short as 4/5 (Skybet). As advised in League One be careful as you are unsure just who might be moved on in January. Others going well in League Two are Jamie Cureton with 15 goals (13/2-Skybet), Ade Akinfenwa with 13 goals (9/1-BetVictor) and Nakhi Wells with 12 14/1 (bet365).

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Southend EW to win League Two, 12/1 (general)
SILVER: AFC Wimbledon to be relegated, 5/4 (Bet365/Skybet/BetVictor)
BRONZE: Wycombe to get promoted, 50/1 (general), to make play-offs 16/1 (BetVictor)

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07/01/2013     © Frixo 2024