Murray value to end 76 years of hurt

Having spent the first six rounds of the Wimbledon men`s singles quoting Andy Murray at shorter odds than he merited, bookmakers have done the complete opposite for the final and posted value prices about the great hope of British tennis.

Murray is available at around 7-4 to beat Roger Federer on Centre Court and become the first British man to win the Wimbledon title since Fred Perry, arguably better known these days for the clothing brand that bears his name, defeated Gottfried von Cramm 6-1 6-1 6-0 in 1936.

Both Murray and Federer have made history in reaching this year`s championship decider: the number four seed is the first British man to get this far since Bunny Austin in 1938, while the Swiss third seed became the first man to qualify for eight Wimbledon men`s singles finals when he defeated title favourite Novak Djokovic 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3.

Why is Murray overpriced to win his first Grand Slam event and prevent Federer taking out his 17th? Well, two reasons stand out. One concerns history and the other maturity.

Let`s deal with the history first. Murray and Federer have, as one would expect of players who have been at the top of men`s tennis for several years, met many times before.

Sunday`s final will be the 16th time that Murray and Federer have stared down each other from across a tennis net, with the Briton leading their head-to-head series 8-7. All 15 of their previous meetings have taken place on hard courts.

What is interesting about the head-to-head numbers of Murray and Federer is the timeline. The Swiss took out their first meeting, in Bangkok in September 2005, but the Briton won seven of their next eight encounters during a period in which he was still ranked well behind the Fed Express.

Sure, Federer has pulled back some of the deficit to go from 2-6 down to 7-8 down since Murray beat him 6-3 4-6 6-1 in Indian Wells three years ago but the fact remains that the Briton matches up very well tactically against the Swiss.

Now let`s talk about maturity. Federer fans will point to his 16 Grand Slam singles crowns and, also, his unbeaten record versus Murray in major tournaments. Fair enough.

But Federer`s aura of invincibility has been shattered in recent years and Murray, benefitting from the mentoring of tough cookie Ivan Lendl, appears to be coming of age.

Murray has not let the pressure get to him during this year`s Wimbledon even though, since Rafael Nadal exited in the second round, the expectation in Britain that he would reach the final at the very least has risen significantly.

One gets the feeling that, in this London 2012 Olympic Games and Queen Elizabeth II Diamond Jubilee year, the time has come for Britain to celebrate its next Wimbledon champion.

Murray represents good value in the Centre Court showdown that some people are billing, quite accurately, as Native Son versus Favourite Son. The general 7-4 about the home hero is more than acceptable but, if you want to bet at longer odds, back the Briton to win either 3-1 or 3-2.

Bookmakers are offering around 11-2 about Murray winning in four sets and around 13-2 about Murray winning in five, which equates to a combined price of around 5-2. Surely Federer is too good on grass to lose to Murray in three.

Go To bet365

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07/07/2012     © Frixo 2024