Berdych to knock out false favourite Murray

Tomas Berdych, fresh from ending the US Open men`s singles campaign of the top seed, is well overpriced to bring down the curtain on Andy Murray`s latest crack at a major title.

And that is not simply because Berdych eliminated five-time Flushing Meadows champion Roger Federer in four superb sets of a superb quarter-final. There is more to the Czech than his increasingly fine record against the Swiss superstar.

Berdych has won four of his six matches versus Murray and three of their four clashes in recent years. Bookmakers are being hugely disrespectful of the Czech in quoting him at around 15-8 to qualify for his first Grand Slam final.

Admittedly, Berdych leads his head-to-head against Murray because of his superiority over the Briton on clay courts but there is nothing to choose between the results of the two men on hard courts. They are tied at 2-2, splitting their two hard-court matches played outdoors as well.

Of course, Murray looks better than ever before and it does seem that his association with Ivan Lendl, formed just prior to this year`s Australian Open, is paying dividends. He does appear likely to become the first British man to win a Grand Slam singles title since Fred Perry won the 1936 US Open.

Backing Berdych is what is known as a pure value play. There is no way that the Czech should be such long odds to improve his already positive record versus Murray. Anything over 6-4 is great value so snap up the 15-8 about the Federer killer.

Most previous matches between Berdych and Murray have been close so punters who like to dabble in set betting may be interested in backing the Czech to win either 3-1 or 3-2.

Berdych to beat Murray in four sets is around 13-2 and the Czech to defeat the Briton in five sets is around 8-1. Put them together and the combination works out at higher than 3-1, which does look like another value play on the tie.

Defending US Open men`s singles champion Novak Djokovic was brilliant in eliminating 2009 title winner Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets and, therefore, he is impossible to oppose against David Ferrer in their New York showdown.

Djokovic leads Ferrer 8-5 irrespective of surface but the head-to-head gap between the Serbian and the Spaniard grows to 7-2 if one throws out their four clay-court meetings.

Interestingly, both of Ferrer`s hard-court victories over Djokovic - 6-4 6-4 in Shanghai five years ago and 6-3 6-1 in London last year - have been on indoor hard courts during the round-robin phase of the season-ending championship of the Association of Tennis Professionals World Tour.

Outdoors and with his eyes firmly on the prize, Djokovic is deservedly around 1-12 to knock out Ferrer and qualify for his seventh Grand Slam singles final out of the last nine.

The question for punters looking to get involved in this US Open men`s singles semi-final is this: will Djokovic drop a set to Ferrer? One would say probably not based on their previous clashes but around 8-13 is as good as punters are going to get from bookmakers scared to death of the Serbian.

Djokovic 3-0 odds of 8-13 are sufficient to warrant a bet on value grounds, with anything above 1-2 worthy of interest.

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07/09/2012     © Frixo 2024