World Cup Brazil vs Germany

It seems hard to imagine for two teams who have lifted the trophy eight times between them that this last four meeting will be only the second time that Brazil and Germany have met in the World Cup. The previous occasion was the 2002 final and it was the South Americans who emerged victorious with Ronaldo grabbing a brace in a 2-0 victory.

BET365 are struggling to split the pair this time around with the firm making Germany marginal favourites at 7/4 while Brazil are 9/5 hopes. The European side can take heart from the absence of the best player for the opposition in Neymar. The influential playmaker has created 22% of the chances the hosts have had so far in this tournament and will be a massive miss here. The Germans can also take hope from the fact that they won the last meeting between the pair in August 2011 when they came out on top 3-2 in an international friendly. It is 10/11 that the Europeans are the ones to qualify for the final.

Brazil though have a remarkable record at home having not lost a competitive match on their own turf since 1975 and are also 10/11 to make the final. They can take heart from the fact that Germany have lost three of their last four semi-finals in major tournaments. Predicting an outcome to this game is as difficult as the bet365 prices suggest with little to choose between the pair, I would lean towards the Europeans though I think better betting value can be found in looking at alternative markets.

The goals market is an interesting one as these two sides are the joint third highest scorers (behind the Netherlands and Colombia) in the tournament. bet365 though think goals will be hard to come by and are as short as 8/15 that the game has under 2.5 goals while over 2.5 goals is as big as 7/5. This is likely a result of the quarter finals producing just five goals with three of these coming in the one match. That high scoring game though involved Brazil and

the five games involving the hosts so far have seen a total of 14 goals. Germany meanwhile have been involved in 13 goals in their five games. I understand the stats suggest that knockout games are lowing scoring but I think 4/9 on over 1.5 goals looks a great play as this would have paid in three of the five Germany games and four of the five involving Brazil. In addition have some of the 11/10 bet365 are offering on both teams to score, this has paid in four of the last five Brazil games and in seven of the nine (including each of the last three) meetings between the pair since 1992. If we think both teams are to find the net it might be worth a little interest in the scoring market to see where the goals are going to come from. Muller has been excellent for Germany in this World Cup and he is 5/1 to score first and 15/8 to net anytime though no goal in the last two suggest that is a little short. Mesut Ozil represents better value for those looking for a player from the European side as he played furthest forward in the game against France and netted against Algeria. The Arsenal man is 9/1 to score first and 15/4 at anytime.

Those looking for Brazil scorer should swerve ineffectual frontmen Fred and Hulk and instead look at Oscar. The Chelsea man has been asked to be more defensive than at club level and he has been doing a remarkable job featuring in the top three in terms of tackling. The injury to Neymar though should mean Ramires comes in to fill that role allowing Oscar to get forward more and he showed last season he knows where the net is finding it 12 times. You can back him at 12/1 to score first and 5/1 anytime with bet365 and this looks value.

RECOMMENDATIONS: Over 1.5 goals in the game, 4/9 (bet365)
Both teams to score Brazil and Germany, 11/10 (bet365)
Ozil to score, first 9/1, anytime 15/4 (bet365)
Oscar to score, first 12/1, anytime 5/1 (bet365)

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08/07/2014     © Frixo 2024