Istanbul overpriced to host 2020 Olympic Games

With the London 2012 Olympic Games about to end, it is time to have a bet on where the International Olympic Committee`s premier event may take place in eight years from now.

The 2016 Olympics are heading to Rio de Janeiro after the IOC awarded the Games of the XXXI Olympiad in October 2009, the Brazilian city beating Chicago, Madrid and Tokyo to bring the event to South America for the first time.

Five cities started out bidding for the 2020 Olympic Games but Baku in Azerbaijan and Doha in Qatar did not make the IOC`s initial cut, leaving Istanbul, Madrid and Tokyo as the three candidate cities for the Games of the XXXII Olympiad.

In little more than 12 months from now the world will know which city will have the honour of hosting the 2020 Olympic Games, with the crucial vote taking place during the 125th IOC Session in Buenos Aires on Saturday 7 September 2013.

Many bookmakers, therefore, are betting on the election result, with Tokyo leading the way at around 6-5. Madrid is second at around 2-1 and Istanbul is bringing up the rear at around 11-4. It is shaping as a very competitive contest.

Believe it or not, there are a couple of full-time analysts who specialise in analysing IOC politics and the races to host IOC events such as the 2020 Olympic Games. So it makes sense to pick their brains before recommending a bet.

First there is Around The Rings. According to its 2020 Olympic Games Power Index, published most recently in March 2012, Tokyo (67 points) leads the race from Istanbul (65 points) and Madrid (65 points). Around The Rings scores bids in 11 categories, awarding a maximum of 10 points in nine categories and a maximum of five points in the other two.

Around The Rings says that its Power Index is not meant to predict the outcome of the 2020 Olympic Games host city vote but rather to show the relative strengths and weaknesses of the cities fighting for the right to stage the event.

Then there is GamesBids, home of the BidIndex. Last updated in May 2012, the BidIndex suggests that a two-way race for the 2020 Olympic Games is forming early in the campaign, with the bids from Istanbul (60.20 points) and Tokyo (59.92 points) pulling away from Madrid (55.10 points).

In contrast to Around The Rings, GamesBids says that its index is not intended to rate the bids based solely on technical quality but on how the bids will perform based on IOC voting patterns. History has demonstrated that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geopolitics usually have a significant impact. The previous two bid winners, Rio 2016 and PyeongChang 2018, both started and ended their campaigns with the highest BidIndex scores.

At the current prices, Istanbul appears to be the value option at around 11-4, although a lot will depend on how Turkey`s bid to host Euro 2020 - the year`s European Championships in the sport of football - develops.

UEFA President Michel Platini, the former France midfield genius who has become a high-ranking administrator, has warned the Turks that their country will not be successful in bidding for both Euro 2020 and the 2020 Olympic Games.

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10/08/2012     © Frixo 2024