Probably probably should be Phoenix Stakes favourite

Ante-post favourite Dawn Approach withdrew from the Phoenix Stakes at the final declaration stage but a strong field remains for this year`s first Group One juvenile race in Europe, including David Wachman`s improving Probably.

With Jim Bolger deciding that the forecast soft ground at The Curragh will not suit Dawn Approach - he will head to the Futurity Stakes at the same track later this month - bookmakers have handed favouritism to Cristoforo Colombo, who was third behind Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes.

The form of that Royal Ascot race is working out incredibly well - it was Dawn Approach`s four win in four starts and runner-up Olympic Glory has won back-to-back Group Two contests subsequently - so it is easy to see why the odds setters have plenty of respect for Cristoforo Colombo.

However, Cristoforo Colombo has run and lost since the Coventry Stakes, going down by one and three quarters of a length to Probably in the Railway Stakes at The Curragh.

Maybe the soft ground was against Cristoforo Colombo that night but Probably won fair and square, keeping on best of the six runners when the going got tough in the final furlong of the six-furlong Group Two event.

In post-Dawn Approach`s withdrawal betting on the Phoenix Stakes, Cristoforo Colombo is around 11-10 and Probably is around 3-1, with Bungle Inthejungle third in calculations at around 9-2. Cristoforo Colombo is a questionable favourite and certainly does not deserve to be so much shorter than Probably, who is the clear value pick at the early odds.

The Phoenix Stakes is one of four Group-standard races at The Curragh on a brilliant day`s racing at the Kildare course, with the Royal Whip Stakes (Group Two), Debutante Stakes (Group Two) and Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group Three) enticing some seriously good runners out to play.

The Royal Whip Stakes over 10 furlongs shapes as a match race between Born To Sea and Famous Name, both of whom are likely to start at around even money. Born To Sea has not won since taking out the Blenheim Stakes on debut last September, whereas seven-year-old Famous Name has won his last two races and his career statistics read 18 firsts, eight seconds and fifth thirds from 35 appearances.

Preference has to be for Famous Name, who is a reliable commodity and sets a high standard. Born To Sea has not raced over 10 furlongs before, having gone from a mile at Royal Ascot to a mile and a half at The Curragh recently.

The Debutante Stakes looks booked for Harasiya, John Oxx`s two-year-old filly who has made light work of winning two races at Leopardstown over the past couple of months. It does not seem to be the strongest Group Two event ever.

The Phoenix Sprint Stakes is an interesting heat over the same six-furlong trip as the Phoenix Stakes, with most of the focus centred on Starspangledbanner understandably.

The 2010 Oakleigh Plate, Golden Jubilee Stakes and July Cup winner is set to make his first start in two years when he lines up in the Group Three contest. Bookmakers rate his chances of a successful comeback highly, installing him at around 13-8 to win the 39,000 euros for his connections.

The Phoenix Sprint Stakes is a race to watch without a financial interest because of Starspangledbanner.

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10/08/2012     © Frixo 2024