Formula 1 Brazil GP

Lewis Hamilton is the 11/8 (Skybet/Blue Sq/888 Sport) favourite for the final Grand Prix of the season after securing pole in Brazil. The Brit will end 12 years of working for McLaren on Sunday and hopes to sign off in style for his team with a win in this race. History is not on the side of Hamilton as not since 2000 (when Michael Schumacher won) has this race been won by the car in Pole Position.

Those wanting to take Hamilton on in the race will see that fellow McLaren driver Jenson Button is the 41/10 (pinnacle) second favourite after qualifying in second place. Button will be hungry to get past Hamilton and follow in the footsteps of Mark Webber who won from second here last year. Speaking of Webber he is third on the grid and is likely to relish the chance on a track where he was won two of the last three and finished second the other year. Webber is 14/1 (Totesport/betfred/BetVictor) and this could be because team orders might see him let Sebastian Vettel past as he looks to secure the World Title. Vettel himself is on fourth in the grid and is a 5/1 (BlueSq/888 Sport/william hill) chance to win the race while Fernando Alonso is a 19/2 (pinnacle) chance.

More important than the race is the quest for the outright title with Vettel three places ahead of Alonso who is 13 points behind him in the standings. If you want to back the German for the title you can get 1/5 (general) while those who think the Spaniard can pull it off tomorrow can get him at 4/1 (general).

Going back again to the Brazilan GP one bet I like the look of is in the top six finish market where alongside the two Red Bull cars,the two McLaren cars and Alonso there is room for one more finisher. Bookmakers think the battle for sixth will be between Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen and I think this allows for a little value. Nico Hulkenburg is 11/4 (paddy Power/ladbrokes) to finish in the top six despite starting from sixth in the grid and I think this looks great value. The German finished eighth at this track on his debut season in 2010 and has top six finishes to his name in recent races in Korea and Belgium.

Another bet I like the look of is in the points finish market where Bruno Senna is 5/4 (Totesport/betfred) to get among the points. Senna is in eleventh place on the grid and will be desperate to do well in his home Grand Prix. Senna has made the top ten in each of his last three races.

The final bet I would recommend is in the double podium finisher market where you can get McLaren at 5/4 (paddy Power/ladbrokes/william hill) to get both their cars to finish on the podium. Vettel is unlikely to do anything stupid knowing that if he can get past Webber into third then that will be enough for the title. Webber is unlikely to try push to get past Vettel so it could be a case of the top two having it comfortable. The bet essentially boils down to whether you think the McLaren can avoid any retirements. Button has only had to retire twice this season while Hamilton has retired four times this season though that is more down to his driving style. I think all said the 5/4 looks a value bet.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Both McLarens to finish on the podium , 5/4 (paddy power/ladbrokes/William Hill)
SILVER: Bruno Senna to finish among the points, 5/4 (Totesport/betfred)
BRONZE: Nico Hulkenburg to finish top six, 11/4 (paddy power/ladbrokes)

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25/11/2012     © Frixo 2024