Avoid GC favourites as Tour de France resumes

There are several schools of thought regarding how to bet on the 10th stage of the Tour de France, the first day`s racing after Bradley Wiggins assumed complete control of the race by winning Monday`s individual time trial emphatically.

The first is that General Classification hopefuls such as Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali and Denis Menchov will attack Wiggins and his third-placed Sky teammate, Chris Froome, at every possible opportunity in the mountains from now onwards, irrespective of the profile of the stage.

The second is that Wiggins and Froome will try and finish off their rivals for the yellow jersey, turning up the heat as the race starts to go uphill and looking to build on the hard work that they did in the so-called Race of Truth.

And the third is that the serious General Classification contenders will, after considering the profile of Stage 10, decide to conserve themselves for the coming mountain days on which the race-deciding climbs are at the business end.

There is no doubt whatsoever that Evans, Nibali and Menchov - especially the Australian and Italian - will not wait long before having a crack at breaking Wiggins and Froome. Evans is not going to give up his Tour de France title without a fight and Nibali would have started the race knowing that, to stand any chance of General Classification glory, he would have to make up significant time in the mountains.

Even allowing for the fact that Evans tried to break Wiggins on the Col du Grand Colombier during this year`s Criterium du Dauphine, the biggest climb of the 2012 Tour de France so far comes more than 40 kilometres before the 10th stage`s finishing line and, therefore, does not lend itself to the job that the defending champion and others need to do.

Therefore, while possible, it is unlikely that Evans, Nibali or Menchov will throw everything at Wiggins, Froome and the Sky team on Stage 10. They are likely to wait at least one more day before trying to ride away from the Britons.

As far as Wiggins and Froome go, they are surely going to let the race come to them rather than the other way round. There is another lengthy time trial to come so Wiggins, in particular, will be content to keep any gap at all between him and the likes of Evans and Nibali until Stage 19.

In conclusion, Stage 10 of the Tour de France is likely to be won by a cyclist who is respectably placed in the General Classification but does not pose a major threat to those riders occupying the podium positions currently. Also, the stage winner is likely to be a more than decent climber, maybe even someone with an eye on the polka-dot jersey.

Alejandro Valverde will have his supporters and, outside of Evans and Nibali, he is the one that most bookmakers want to avoid. The Spaniard is around 14-1 to win the tenth stage but he has suffered so much misfortune in this year`s race already that he feels that the world is against him.

Perhaps the most interesting outsider is Arthur Vichot, the French youngster who won the Criterium du Dauphine stage that featured the Col du Grand Colombier. The 23-year-old will be available at 100-1 and higher so, if you want a rational yet speculative punt, he is the one to back.

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11/07/2012     © Frixo 2024