Football League Cup Preview

Bradford and Swansea fans must be able to almost taste the cheap hot dogs at Wembley (well if you call a fiver cheap) as the second leg of the League Cup Semi-Finals take place this week.

Swansea are 2-0 up from the first leg against Chelsea and bookmakers have them as the 11/10 (general) favourites to lift the trophy. Chelsea are the 11/4 (general) second favourites while Aston Villa are 17/4 (You Win) and Bradford are 9/1 (You Win).

The first game Tuesday night sees Aston Villa host Bradford as they look to bounce from a 3-1 first leg defeat. First a quick explanation of the rules, away goals will count double after extra-time, so Villa know that a 2-0 victory would see them into extra time. Bookmakers make Villa 2/5 (general) to win the second leg, while the draw is 9/2 (general) and a shock Bradford victory is 91/12 (pinnacle). In the to qualify market Bradford are 4/5 (Stan James/You Win) while Villa are 11/10 (general). I think the game looks well poised and as such will be avoiding any recommendations on the match bet markets and instead will look at some of the surrounding markets.

At the weekend we suggested a punt on Charles N’Zogbia to score against West Brom and although he didn’t net he did provide two assists and found himself in some great scoring positions. I think it is worth sticking with the player who is 10/1 (bet365/Coral) to score the opener as Lambert is likely to name an attacking side as he looks for goals. Also side with the player in the anytime scorer market where he can be backed at 11/4 (bet365).

I also expect goals in this game though bookmakers agree and have over 2.5 goals as short as 8/13 (boylesports) while under 2.5 goals is 19/13 (32 Red). Both teams to score is 5/6 (SkyBet/boylesports) while NO in this market is priced at 21/20 (Coral/william hill/betway).

The other games takes place Wednesday evening and sees Swansea against Chelsea. The Swans are 2-0 up from the first leg and bookmakers have them as 4/11 (general) favourites to qualify while it is 5/2 (ladbrokes) that Chelsea do. The bet that appeals to me is for Chelsea to win on the night at evens (general). Though the Blues went down in the first leg I think three things point to them being a good bet to win the second leg. First is the presence of Dembe Ba. Ba caused Swansea a number of problems in his brief appearance from the bench in the first leg and his presence from the start could be key. Secondly is the mental factor that a 2-0 lead holds. The Swans will defend manfully but when you know that you can lose a game 1-0 and still go through this has to be seen as a small safety net. The third factor is that Chelsea have produced some of their best performances away from Stamford Bridge winning each of their last six away from home and playing some great football in the process.

Dembe Ba is expected to most of the damage and bookmakers agree by making him 9/2 (ladbrokes) to score the opener while Fernando Torres is a 11/2 (general) chance and Michu is rated 7/1 (general). It is Juan Mata at 8/1 (ladbrokes) who appeals to me. The Spaniard netted at the weekend and for a player with such a knack of finding himself in the right place at the right time this look value as does the 5/2 (ladbrokes) are offering in the anytime scorer market.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Chelsea to beat Swansea in the second leg, evens (general)
SILVER: Juan Mata to score v Swansea, first 8/1 (ladbrokes), anytime 5/2 (ladbrokes)
BRONZE: Charles N’Zogbia to score v Bradford, first 10/1 (bet365/Coral), anytime 11/4 (bet365)

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23/01/2013     © Frixo 2024