NFL Preview 12th Jan

BALTIMORE AT DENVER, 21:30 GMT (Saturday)

Sometimes predicting the winner of an NFL game is hard, sometimes it is easy. Who out of Denver or Baltimore has the best quarterback? Which team has the best defence? Which team has the better offensive line? Which team has better special teams? Which team has the better health? Which team has home advantage? Well done if the answer to all those question was Denver. The Broncos are the 5/19 (BWin/pinnacle) favourites to win the game and this looks about right as the side are now undefeated in the last three months and take on a Ravens side that limped into the play-offs. It would have been a lovely story if Peyton Manning was making his post-season return against former side Indianapolis and against his successor Andrew Luck. As one Ravens fan sign last weekend said though ’Luck runs out here’ and Baltimore produced a professional veteran performance to see off a young Colts side. So it is Denver and Baltimore who do battle and it is as big as 7/2 (general) that the Ravens can spring the shock. The last time these sides met was back in December in week 15 when the visiting Broncos ran out comfortable winners 34-17 making it nine straight occasions when Manning-led teams have beaten Baltimore. The Ravens are making all sorts of positive noises about how last time out was a blip and how motivated they are for this game yet motivation can only take you so far. Take Denver to cover the spread at between 9 and 9.5 depending on what price you are comfortable taking at the expense of a half point on the score as they are the much better team.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO 01.00 (GMT) Sunday

If the last game was easy to call then the later game is impossible it just depends which Packers turn up and which 49ers turn up. A saying exists in the NFL ’on any given Sunday’ and this looks hugely appropriate here. Bookmakers make San Francisco the 5/7 (william hill/pinnacle) favourites perhaps due to home field advantage and maybe with some regards to the way the 49ers won at the Packers stadium in Week 1. A lot has changed since then and the Green Bay offence is firing more while the San Francisco defence has been shown to be a lot more vulnerable than anticipated. Green Bay are 27/20 (ladbrokes) and this looks the marginal value though for me I will be avoiding the match markets and looking for a few bets on the side markets.

I like the look of a couple of players in the anytime touchdown scorer market. The first is Dujuan Harris who journalistic convention means that I must mention started the summer as a used car salesmen before a remarkable journey (sorry) to a key starter in the Packers offence. Harris is 7/4 with bet365 which looks decent value on a player who has scored in three of the last five games and will see a lot of the ball.

Also in the same market I am going to recommend taking Michael Crabtree who is 11/10 with Skybet and william hill. Since the switch of quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick Crabtree has been targeted much more on the offence. He grabbed four touchdowns in the last three games and is likely to be targeted a number of times this time around.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Denver Broncos to cover spread against Baltimore Ravens
SILVER: Michael Crabtree in anytime touchdown scorer market v Packers, 11/10 (SKybet/william hill)
BRONZE: Dujuan Harris in anytime touchdown scorer market v 49ers, 7/4 (bet365)

Go To bet365

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12/01/2013     © Frixo 2024