For Ecuador, theres no place like home

There are 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil qualifiers taking place all over the globe this weekend and the best bet is Ecuador to beat Chile in one of the South American preliminaries.

There is not much to choose between Ecuador and Chile on the current world rankings - one is talking about 20th versus 17th - there is a lot of difference between the home form of the former and the away form of the latter, more than enough to support backing the host to win at odds of around 10-11.

Ecuador has won its last eight home matches, the last six of them without conceding a goal. And when Ecuador met Chile in a New York friendly two months ago, it was up 2-0 inside 13 minutes and ended up winning the game by three goals to nil.

Home advantage is massive in countries such as Ecuador and really it should be something like 4-6 to collect three points from a Quito clash versus a Chile team that has struggled against South America`s half-decent sides.

Staying in the CONMEBOL confederation, Colombia catches the eye at 4-7 for its home match versus a Paraguay team that has an awful away record against non-minnow sides. Paraguay has not beaten one of the good South American sides on the road since October 2008 and it has lost five of its last six away games. Also, one can hardly label a 1-0 friendly win in Guatemala as a triumph. Colombia, going well in its bid to qualify for 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil, is a great bet.

Serbia is overpriced at 13-8 to defeat overhyped Belgium in Belgrade. Like Ecuador and Chile, there is little between the world rankings of Serbia and Belgium - three places to be exact - so the home team should be closer to even money than its live quote. The smart football odds compilers of ladbrokes are trying to duck Serbia and one can see why.

Now for some exotic and speculative suggestions. First, one would want to get short of total goals in the match between Moldova and Ukraine. Moldova has not scored in any of its last seven games and Ukraine rarely manages more than one goal in any given 90 minutes. Fewer than three goals - the under 2.5 goals option - is good value at just under evens.

Second, Kazakhstan and the draw - especially the latter - are too big for Austria`s second visit to Astana in 12 months. The October 2011 meeting of the sides, which was a competitive fixture, ended goalless so back the home team at around 5-4 in receipt of a half-goal handicap head start.

And finally, bookmakers are underrating Liechtenstein`s chance of getting something positive from its home match versus Lithuania. Liechtenstein defeated Lithuania 2-0 during the UEFA Euro 2012 preliminaries and the odds-on favourite`s last 10 away games have resulted in nine losses and one draw, with two goals scored and 19 goals conceded.

Liechtenstein is comfortably odds against not to lose to Lithuania, with the home win price of around 13-2 and the draw price of around 100-30 working out at around 7-4.

One just has to overlook the fact that Liechtenstein lost 1-8 to Bosnia and Herzegovina on its last home appearance.

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12/10/2012     © Frixo 2024