Cheltenham Festival Day 3 - Part 3

The third and final part of the Cheltenham Festival Thursday preview looks at the three closing races.

The fifth race of the day is the Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) which gets underway at 16:00. The market is currently headed by Ballynagour from the David Pipe yard. The David Pipe runner was a winner over the distance at Warwick last time out and the Pipe/Scudamore partnership landed this race successfully last year. At around 4/1 the price looks a little short on a horse whose form is mostly international. The ages of the horses who win this race tend to vary though it is worth noting that of the last nine winners only two of them have been aged over eight-years-old. This might be a race then suits the younger or middle aged horses.

I like the look of Cantlow in this though the prices are a little short in a big runner field and as such I will recommend the each-way chances of one at a bigger price. Vino Griegio was 14/1 at time of writing and this looks decent value on a horse looking for a third consecutive victory. The Gary Moore runner saw off Cappa Bleu at Ascot and on the penultimate start won at Cheltenham.

The sixth race of the afternoon is the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) for amateur riders. This is one of if not the toughest race to work out at the festival.

The best trend line that I could find is that it you should look for amateurs who have some level of experience at the Festival. Another interesting stat to note is that only four of the last 33 winners were seven or younger suggesting this is a race for horses in their prime (eight or nine).

The market is currently headed by Super Duty from the Donald McCain yard. Super Duty has five wins and four seconds from ten career starts and won here at Cheltenham in December. The jockey Derek O’Connor has 13 Cheltenham rides to his name and with two wins is unlikely to be overawed by the occasion. Super Duty could have run in the RSA such is the quality of the horse and it looks the best bet here.

The seventh and the final race of the Afternoon is the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country) which gets underway at 17:15. The trends show that 14 of the last 16 races have been won by a horse in the first three in the betting so this is clearly a race the bookmakers have down well. The three market leaders at the time of writing this were Arabella Boy, Outlaw Pete and Bostons Angel. Arabella Boy comes from the famous Enda Bolger yard and he has trained the winner of this race in four of the last eight years though he has not had the winner in this since 2009. The Bolger runner though looks a little short when you consider than from two previous starts at the course the best finish is tenth (on the other occasion the rider was unseated).

It is the Willie Mullins runner Uncle Junior that gets the nod from me. The fourth favourite is just outside the top three betting. The veteran won a cross country here in November when seeing off Balthazar King who won this race last year and should go off at double figures.

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BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Super Duty to win the Handicap Chase for Amateur Riders (16:40)
SILVER: Uncle Junior EW in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (17:15)
BRONZE: Vino Griegio EW in the Byrne Group Plate (16:00)

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13/03/2013     © Frixo 2024