Football Monday Night 18th Feb

Man United take on Reading in the FA Cup Monday night as they look to push on in their bid to replicate the team of 1998/99 who won the treble. Bookmakers make United as short as 2/7 (BetVictor/william hill) favourites for the game as they have have won 15 of their last 19 home ties in the FA Cup. United meanwhile have won each of their last eight domestic home games. The cup though this season has been full of shocks and Reading fans will afford themselves licence to dream. Current form suggest they look dangerous opponents and have lost just two of their last ten games in all competitions. If you think the Royals can get something from this game then the draw is available at 6/1 (bet365) and a Reading victory is 11/1 (general).

Those looking for a bet in the first goalscorer market will see the betting is headed by Robin Van Persie at 3/1 (Coral) while Wayne Rooney is 7/2 (paddy Power/BWin). Rooney has netted three goals in his last two starts against Reading. If you think Javier Hernandez will get the start he is 9/2 (BWin) to get the goal while Danny Welbeck who got the goal in the Champions League is a 5/1 (ladbrokes) chance. Those looking for a Reading player can get Adam Le Fondre at 14/1 (BWin) which if he starts could look a decent price as he has grabbed seven goals in his last seven appearances and scored against United when these sides met earlier in the season.

I think value can be had in going against the expectation that this game will have goals. Just because the last game was a seven goal thriller do not expect this to be the same. Five of the last seven United games have featured under 2.5 goals including each of their last three. Reading went to the Etihad a few weeks ago and kept the game tight and can perhaps do the same again here. I think at the prices it would be silly not to take on goals in this game so I recommend under 3.5 goals as the main bet at 11/12 (pinnacle) with a little interest on under 2.5 goals at the inflated price of 11/5 (boylesports/BetVictor). If Reading can keep this game tight early on then you will have opportunities to lay this bet off.

This is not the only game Monday night as the Sky cameras are at Crawley for their League One match with Doncaster. Both sides enter the game desperate for points as a once promising season threatens to slip away. Crawley have dropped from second at one stage and all the way down to 15th while Doncaster are now down to fourth. Rovers seem to be struggling to come to terms with the departure of manager Dean Saunders. This game then is a tricky one to predict between two out of form sides and bookmakers agree making Crawley the 13/8 (bet365/betfred) slight favourites while Doncaster are 31/16 (pinnacle) and the draw is 12/5 (general).

The value bet then may be a little play of Nicky Adams in the goalscorer markets. The midfielder has netted in three of the last seven Crawley games and in two of the last three home games. At odds of 12/1 (paddy Power/ladbrokes) he looks worth an interest here while in the anytime goalscorer market he can be backed at a very reasonable 9/2 (paddy power).

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Under 3.5 goals Man Utd v Reading, 11/12 (Pinnacle)
SILVER: Under 2.5 goals Man Utd v Reading, 11/5 (boylesports/BetVictor)
BRONZE: Nicky Adams to score v Doncaster, first 12/1 (paddy power/ladbrokes), anytime 9/2 (Paddy Power)

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18/02/2013     © Frixo 2024