Premier League Preview 24th Feb

Two games take place in the Premier League Sunday here is our guide to the best of the bets.

In the early stages of the season a game between Man City and Chelsea would have been marked as a key game in the title race now though it is a battle for second. City are just four points ahead of Chelsea while some 12 points behind United. It is a game Chelsea must win to close the gap.

Bookmakers have City as the evens (Blue Sq/888 Sport/ladbrokes) favourites for the game which some people could argue is on the generous side considering their home form. This home form has not been as strong against some of the bigger sides with only Tottenham of the teams in the top seven failing to take at least point from their trip to the Etihad this season. Chelsea can be encouraged by their recent record in meetings with City losing just one of their last four in the league against them. The London side have lost each of their last three at the Etihad though. In addition they had a tough game in the Europa League Thursday night while Man City were resting. Those who fancy an away victory can get Chelsea at 10/3 (bet365/BetVictor/Stan James) while the draw is a best priced 11/4 (pinnacle).

Those looking for a first goalscorer might be interested in the price of the in-form Edin Dzeko who has scored six goals in his last seven Premier League appearances. Dzeko is 7/1 (Coral) to grab the opener while Frank Lampard who is looking to score a goal for the fifth Premier League game in a row is 10/1 (bet365/paddy Power/Coral) to net first or 7/2 (Coral) in the anytime scorer market.

In a tough game to predict the best of the bets looks like coming in the highest scoring half market where the stats suggest it makes sense to side with the second half. 62% of Man City’s goals have came in the second half while 58% of Chelsea’s goals have came in the second half. Throw in the tired legs of a side playing Thursday and the need for Chelsea to get three rather than one point and this game may open up in the later stages. Take the 6/5 with Bwin.

The other game Sunday is live but not televised due to the League Cup and is also a 1.30 kickoff between Newcastle and Southampton. Despite improved form I have to think Newcastle should be taken on here. The Magpies had a tough game in Ukraine on Thursday evening while Southampton have had their feet up all week. The Saints will be full of confidence after victory over Man City last time out a result that means they have lost just one of their last nine Premier League games. The Saints can be backed at 11/4 (Blue Sq/888 Sport/ladbrokes) though I prefer to play them with the cover of the draw no bet as they do draw an awful lot of games. The price of Southampton in the draw no bet market is 7/4 (Blue Sq/888 Sport).

The head to head record is not in the favour of Southampton who have won none of their last eight in Newcastle though I do not find this too relevant as none of these games took place before 2006. Both sides have gone a big number of changes in players and managers. The more relevant result is the one at St Mary’s in November where the Saints won 1-0.

We talked before about how tired Newcastle will be in the second half even if the starting lineup is changed you can not take out the effects of the journey itself. betway are offering a generous evens that Newcastle do not keep a clean sheet in the second 45 minutes of the game and with the fire power Southampton have this looks the way to play it.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Southampton in draw no bet market v Newcastle, 7/4 (Blue Sq/888 Sport)
SILVER: Newcastle NOT to keep a clean in second half v Southampton, evens (betway)
BRONZE: Man City and Chelsea second half to be highest scoring, 6/5 (BWin)

Go To bet365

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24/02/2013     © Frixo 2024