Keep your Rolland winnings in your pocket

If you backed Pierre Rolland to take out the 11th stage of the Tour de France you probably want to find someone in Stage 12 on which to reinvest some of your winnings.

Rolland, highlighted at around the 12-1 mark to win the toughest stage on this year`s Tour de France itinerary, claimed victory by 55 seconds on an epic day of racing during which defending champion Cadel Evans slid out of General Classification and Chris Froome indicated that he could start next year`s race as the yellow jersey favourite.

Evans lost two minutes and 23 seconds to slump to fourth in this year`s standings, too far behind Bradley Wiggins with another time trial in which the British cyclist specialises to come for him to have a chance of standing on top of the Tour de France podium in Paris for the second year in a row.

On yesterday`s final climb Froome paced Wiggins back into the group containing Vincenzo Nibali and, for a couple of seconds, left behind his Sky teammate. Only after receiving team orders did Froome slow down and wait for Wiggins to get back on his wheel. But Froome has the beating of Wiggins.

Bookmakers do not know what to make of the 12th stage and you can appreciate why. They have installed Peter Sagan, leader of the Points Classification and, therefore, wearer of the green jersey, as the favourite at around 7-2 but it is roughly 14-1 bar the Slovakian sprint superstar. That is because any number of scenarios could pan out on the road.

The profile of Stage 12 is a very intriguing one. At 226 kilometres it is the longest on this year`s Tour de France and the first third of the stage features not one but two Category One climbs, exactly what the peloton does not need after yesterday`s five-hour torture test in the Alps.

How you bet - or indeed, if you bet - on the 12th stage will come down to how you view the day`s action transpiring.

If you think that the peloton will break up early but come back together not long before the finishing line in Annonay Davezieux then you will be all over Sagan at around 7-2. He is the world`s premier sprinter on slight inclines as he demonstrated twice during the Tour de France`s first week.

But if you think that Stage 12 will be won by a rider in a breakaway that stays away for 100-plus kilometres, well, you should either bet small on a roughie or not bet at all.

Narrowing down the field of potential breakaway winners is almost impossible but one thing to consider is the date. Tomorrow is Bastille Day so you can probably put a line through all the French cyclists left in the race because they will have their sights set on winning on 14 July.

If you must have a wager on the 12th stage then you could do worse than back Jens Voigt at around 33-1. The German can climb when he is in the mood - he is 10th in the Climber Classification - and he loves the challenge of getting into a breakaway, staying away from a chasing peloton and, ultimately, getting the better of his breakaway mates.

Voigt has won three Tour de France stages in his career and he went close to number four just a couple of days ago.

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13/07/2012     © Frixo 2024