Sepoy overpriced to win July Cup battle

The July Cup is one of the sprint highlights on the British horse racing calendar and, while this year`s renewal looks wide open, there is one runner who screams betting value.

Sepoy, who represents the Darley/Godolphin operation that sponsors the six-furlong dash down Newmarket`s July Course, can be forgiven his Dubai Golden Shaheen flop because he had won 10 of his previous 11 races, many of them on soft going.

While Black Caviar`s Royal Ascot performance took some of the shine off her 22-race unbeaten record, there is little doubt that the Australian sprint division is stronger than its British equivalent and Sepoy, although now trained out of the Mahmood Al Zarooni stable, is an Australian horse having won nine times in 11 Melbourne or Sydney contests.

If Sepoy can reproduce his Australian form in England then the four-year-old mount of Frankie Dettori has the potential to make quotes of around 12-1 look massive once the July Cup is over. While Sepoy will not love the soft ground forecast for Newmarket, he will not hate it, either. Ten of his races in Australia took place on rain-affected surfaces so he has proven that he can handle a fair bit of cut in the ground.

Another point about Sepoy worth making is that Godolphin left him in the July Cup at the expense of Soul, who was fourth in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, less than a length behind Black Caviar and ahead of Society Rock, Krypton Factor, Sirius Prospect, Genki and The Cheka. All bar Black Caviar are in the field for the Newmarket event.

The going is sure to play a huge role in the July Cup and that is why you should should steer clear of Bated Breath, the Roger Charlton-trained perennial Group One bridesmaid. The five-year-old son of Dansili is an admirable horse but he tends to find at least one too good for him when he races at the highest level and, also, all of his best form is on ground much drier than what Newmarket is likely to provide.

Society Rock will have his supporters, not least because he is one of the few runners who will actually enjoy racing on glue. Also, the five-year-old son of Rock Of Gibraltar did miss the break in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes after getting restless in the stalls and, therefore, did extremely well to get within two lengths of the mighty Australian mare.

But Society Rock is around 5-1 to win the July Cup and Sepoy is available at more than double those odds. If Sepoy is better than Soul, as would appear to be the case based on comments out of the Godolphin team, the betting value lies in taking a punt on the sponsor`s representative getting up.

Given the high esteem in which British fans hold Australian sprinters it would be remiss not to mention Ortensia, who represents the New South Wales yard of Paul Messara in the July Cup after finishing ninth in the King`s Stand Stakes.

There are media reports that Ortensia, winner of the Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai three and a half months ago, worked well on Newmarket`s July Course this week but the worsening ground is likely to be against her as she bid to bounce back.

Like Society Rock, Ortensia is trading at shorter odds than Sepoy so back the former Australian over the current one.

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13/07/2012     © Frixo 2024