Murray has terrific chance of upsetting Djokovic

Pre-tournament pick Novak Djokovic is around the 4-9 mark to beat Andy Murray in the US Open men`s singles final at Flushing Meadows that is 24 hours behind schedule.

Djokovic got the betting nod before the New York event got under way two weeks ago when bookmakers were offering odds of around 6-4 about the Serbian going all the way and winning his sixth Grand Slam singles championship.

Punters who are on Djovokic at 6-4 can either lay him on a betting exchange or back Murray to lock in a profit. The Briton is around 2-1 to break his Grand Slam singles title duck in New York, which means that there is a 4-11 winner out there for punters who backed the Serbian very early.

Certainly there are good grounds for backing Murray to lock in a profit because the 2-1 odds that bookmakers are offering about him winning the US Open men`s singles final are a little bit on the generous side given the recent history of matches between the Briton and Djokovic.

The two great friends - they grew up travelling the junior tennis circuit together and they share a deep love of football, regularly cajoling others to play in hastily arranged soccer games - have met 14 times as senior professionals, with Djokovic leading Murray 8-6.

However, Murray lost his first four professional matches against Djokovic so that overall statistic is somewhat misleading given that it dates back to 2006. Also, the Briton and the Serbian are tied on two victories each this year and 5-5 in hard-court ties throughout their careers.

As a proven Grand Slam singles title winner and the higher ranked player, Djokovic deserves to be the US Open men`s singles final favourite. But the gap between the Serbian and the Briton is too big based on odds of around 4-9 and 2-1.

First, Murray won his most recent encounter versus Djokovic in straight sets, 7-5 7-5 in the London 2012 Olympic Games men`s singles semi-finals at Wimbledon. That match and the gold medal decider in which he crushed Roger Federer have instilled the Briton with a whole new level of confidence.

Second, there is a big difference between some of the hard courts on which the stars of world tennis play. Some such as those on which the Australian Open is contested are slow and some such as those in Dubai are fast. Djokovic is at his best on slow hard courts, while Murray likes fast ones.

This is significant because Murray almost beat Djokovic at this year`s Australian Open and did beat him in Dubai in the following month. The Flushing Meadows hard courts are rated on the fast side so they should suit the Briton better than the Serbian, albeit only by a little bit. It is, however, those little bits that make the difference at the top level.

It was the US Open men`s singles final draw that made Djokovic the pre-tournament pick. It is the head-to-head data and the state of the betting markets that makes Murray the value selection going into the championship match.

Backing Murray at 2-1 is reasonable in the circumstances. Greedy gamblers, though, may have a look at backing the Briton to beat Djokovic in straight sets, an option that is trading at around 9-1. All Murray`s wins against his good mate have come without him dropping a set. The ultimate confidence player, once the Briton gets on top rarely does he let go. His problems are when he falls behind in a match and starts to think that the world is against him.

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13/09/2012     © Frixo 2024