Dont follow the Pack in Houston

Houston is over the odds to beat Green Bay in what is the marquee match of Week Six in the National Football League.

The Texans are around 8-15 to extend their unbeaten run to six games and, against the spread, bookmaking are asking them to give up a general three and a half points.

Houston is the most balanced team in the National Football League with weapons on both side of the ball. Offensively, quarterback Matt Schaub, running back Arian Foster and wide receiver Andre Johnson are putting points on the board at a rate of almost 30 per match. Defensively, the Texans, led by defensive end JJ Watt, are giving up fewer than 15 points per game. Correctly they are Super Bowl XLVII favourites.

The Packers are 2-3 after five rounds and trading on past glories. Put their players in another side`s uniforms and they would be bigger underdogs for their trip to Texas. Bookmakers know, however, that they will be able to write mug bets on the Cheeseheads at any odds that they list.

Leave Green Bay to the mugs. The Packers have all sorts of problems on offence. They will line up against Houston without their best running back, Cedric Benson, and their best wide receiver, Greg Jennings. Both of them are injured and Benson is expected to miss at least the next nine weeks, which puts a heap of pressure on Alex Green and James Stark, neither of whom is in Benson`s class. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 21 times this season and now encounters a JJ Watt-inspired Texans defensive line.

Recreational punters are unlikely to give up on Green Bay, even though it is 1-4 against the spread and Houston is 4-1 against the spread. Furthermore, the Packers are 0-4 against the spread in their last four away matches, whereas the Texans are 3-0-1 in their last four home games.

Expect all the action to be on Green Bay in receipt of a start and maybe wait until the last minute before backing Houston in the hope of getting a two-and-a-half-point spread. As anyone who bets on American football regularly knows, there are some important numbers against the spread and none is more important than the number three.

In another Week Six match, an underdog team that is worth a second look is Cleveland, which will seek to win its first game of the National Football League season when Cincinnati plays its divisional rival in front of the Dawg Pound.

The Browns are the National Football League`s only 0-5 side and one of their five losses was 27-34 away to the Bengals last month. Star Cleveland cornerback Joe Haden was ruled out of the reverse fixture through suspension but he is available to shut down young Cincinnati wide receive AJ Green on Sunday. That shapes as an important match-up.

The Bengals won by seven points in Cincinnati because it burned the Browns downfield and over the top. Haden will stiffen up the home side`s defence and make life a lot harder for Green and company. Home advantage and the long-awaited return of Haden support a Cleveland bet.

As with the Texans, recreational punters are likely to fade the Browns so wait for the odds to drift out before playing, with a straight-up wager at odds against on the agenda.

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13/10/2012     © Frixo 2024