NFL Gameweek 6

The first of three live games Sunday sees Detroit at Philadelphia and it is 100/175 (You Win) for the home victory. Both sides have big questions that they need to answer, for the Eagles it is whether they can continue with their quarterback situation as it is as Michael Vick has been turning over the ball at an alarming rate. For the Lions it is working out what has gone wrong. They came to the season as one of the dark horses after finishing 10-6 last year and instead seemed to be looking lame. History is not on the side of Detroit as they have not won any of their last six against Philadelphia. Current form is not kind either as the Lions have lost their last three games in a row while the Eagles have won both of their home games this season. The recommended bet here is to bank on turnovers as Vick is a turnover machine while the Eagles are allowing opponents to complete just 28 % of the throws which is the best in the NFL. Skybet are going 5/4 that the game features more than 5.5 turnovers and this looks the way to play it.

The second of the live games Sunday pitches the New York Giants against San Francisco in a repeat of the NFC Conference Final. The Giants can take heart from the fact they have a good record against the 49ers in recent weeks winning four of their last five meetings including victory that play-off victory. Bookmakers make San Francisco the 100/250 (You Win) favourites for the game while New York Giants are 23/9 (pinnacle). Those looking for a first touchdown scorer bet will see the market headed by Frank Gore at 11/2 (Skybet) ahead of Victor Cruz at 15/2 (paddy Power/ladbrokes). The value play could be with Mario Manningham against his old side as he seems to be developing an improved relationship with quarterback Alex Smith and got his first touchdown of the season against Buffalo last weekend. True the Giants defence is much tougher than the Bills however the 9/4 (ladbrokes) are offering on him to score anytime looks very generous.

The third and final live game of the evening sees the favourites Houston entertain Green Bay. This is the toughest test that the Texans have had all season as they look to go 6-0 while the Packers look to get back to 3-3. The Texans injury curse that hit them last season looks to have once again returned this season as All Pro linebacker Brian Cushing suffered a season ending injury. Cushing has a team high 29 tackles this season and is the leader of the defensive group. This is not to say the Texans might collapse just that it might be worth backing Green Bay to score over 21 points at 10/11 (pinnacle). The Packers offense has not been clicking as hoped though I think a talented quarterback like Aaron Rodgers will find a way to get it together.

The Monday night game sees Denver at San Diego. The Chargers are 18/19 (Pinnacle) slight favourites while the Broncos are evens (general). I like the Broncos as they are an improving side while San Diego have lost two of their last three and failed any kind of test against serious opponents. Peyton Manning has passed for over 300 yards in each of his last three and against a side that is allowing 260 passing yards per game and this despite playing some of the weakest offences like the Raiders, Chiefs and Titans. Take Manning to pass for over 300.5 yards at 10/11 (ladbrokes).

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Denver to beat San Diego at evens (general).
SILVER: Mario Manningham to score anytime v New York Giants, 9/4 (ladbrokes)
BRONZE: Peyton Manning to pass over 300.5 yards, 10/11 (ladbrokes)

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13/10/2012     © Frixo 2024