World Cup Final 13th Jul

Brazil v Netherlands, Saturday 12th July, 21:00, ITV

The third and fourth play-off is a game that nobody wants to play yet FIFA continue to insist we do so Brazil and Netherlands must go again despite the fact they both just want to retire to a beach and lick their wounds for a few weeks before the start of the new season.

BET365 make the South Americans the 4/6 favourites to finish third while the Europeans are 5/4. To win the match in 90 minutes you can get Brazil at 6/5 while the Dutch are 23/10. I can see reasons to oppose both teams with confidence being a huge worry for the hosts after that embarassing 7-1 defeat to Germany. The Dutch meanwhile while be tired after two successive matches that featured extra-time and penalties. With this in mind and nothing at stake in this match I would not rush to get involved in the outrights.

If you want a little interest in the game then you should probably look to the goal markets and take note of the fact that six of the last eight third and fourth placed battles have seen four or more goals scored (the other two have seen three goals each). You can get 4/7 that the game has over 2.5 goals, 4/5 that the game has over 2.5 goals and both teams score and 11/8 that the game has over three goals. I could recommend all three though for staking purposes I will stick with the latter of these options at the bigger prices.

RECOMMENDATION: Game to have over three goals, 11/8 (bet365)

Germany v Argentina, Sunday 13th July, 20:00, BBC and ITV

This has been a mixed world cup with an exceptional group stage that averaged 2.8 goals per game while the knockout stages has averaged just 2.2 per goals per game or 1.71 in normal time. In fact if you take out the outlier that is the game between Germany and Brazil the average drops to 1.23 per game. These numbers show that the knockout stages have been a huge disappointment and for Brazil 2014 to be remembered fondly we need a classic final.

BET365 have Germany at 4/6 to lift the trophy and Argentina at 5/4 while to win in 90 minutes the European side are 13/10 shots and the South Americans are 5/2.

Judging by the semi-finals then Germany will be a popular bet though I would warn people against that. True they swept aside Brazil while Argentina needed penalties to defeat the Netherlands this though is a different game. The South Americans have kept clean sheets in all three of their knockout games and I think they have the players and personal to make life difficult for Germany. It is 2/5 that Germany net under 1.5 goals which looks value.

Lionel Messi and Thomas Muller both still harbour hopes of challenging for top scorer in the World Cup and you can get 7/4 that either of them nets at anytime while is is 9/2 they net the opener. Miroslav Klose is the man for the big occasion and he is 5/2 to net at anytime while man City frontman Sergio Aguero is an 11/4 chance to score.

Our selection to win the Golden Boot, James Rodriguez, is already in pole position having been tipped at 33/1. Alongside this the Golden Ball will be awarded to the player of the tournament and I think the 16/1 on Toni Kroos to win this looks outstanding value. The German midfielder has been outstanding in the knockout stages especially against Brazil and if he can star again in the final and help Germany lift the trophy then he has every chance.

RECOMMENDATION: Germany to score under 1.5 goals, 2/5 (bet365)
Toni Kroos to win the Golden Ball award, 16/1 (bet365)

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14/07/2014     © Frixo 2024