Black Caviar expensive to follow in margin betting

With no Group-rated events at either Sandown or York on Saturday, most horse racing fans are looking ahead to Royal Ascot and five consecutive days of high-quality contests.

Two horses have attracted 99 per cent of the headlines in the lead up to Royal Ascot - Australian star Black Caviar and the only active thoroughbred rated higher than her, Frankel. Neither is yet to taste defeat on a racecourse.

British horse racing bookmakers and enthusiasts have, like their Australian counterparts before then, fallen in love with Black Caviar, the mare who has won 21 races in a row and become such big news Down Under that the recent auction of her half-sister for 2.6 million Australian dollars was a prominent story on the country`s television bulletins.

With Black Caviar at around the 1-3 mark for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, several British bookmakers have taken a lead from their Australian cousins and framed exotic markets on the margin of the Peter Moody-trained phenomenon`s victory. What many of them have overlooked is that Black Caviar has a history of winning her races by unspectacular distances.

The biggest margin by which Black Caviar has won any of her 21 races is six lengths and, more often than not, her regular jockey, Luke Nolen, does nothing more than ride her out hands and heels to the post. Nolen is operating under strict instructions from Moody to handle Black Caviar with care, doing only what is required to win and nothing more.

Now there is a chance that Moody and Nolen will want Black Caviar to win at Royal Ascot emphatically because the race result will have a significant impact on her racing legacy.

But that chance is not all that great. Moody is toying with racing Black Caviar in the July Cup at Newmarket next month and, therefore, he will not want Nolen to exert the mare unnecessarily if the Diamond Jubilee Stakes race in front of Queen Elizabeth II is all over at the furlong marker.

And even if Moody decides that Black Caviar will return to her Melbourne base after only one run in the United Kingdom, he will want the daughter of Bel Esprit and Helsinge as fresh as possible for an end-of-year campaign likely to encompass feature events in Australia and Hong Kong.

If punters can strike a bet, particularly one at better than even money, about Frankel winning his Royal Ascot race by a wider margin than Black Caviar wins her, they will have obtained excellent value from their bookmaker.

Frankel, around 1-5 for the Queen Anne Stakes on the opening day of the Royal Ascot carnival - Black Caviar races on the fifth and final day - has a history of romps and is more likely to justify red-hot favouritism with a big win.

The Sir Henry Cecil-trained colt has won his ten races by a total margin of 50 and a half lengths, with his most recent three triumphs coming by five lengths, four lengths and five lengths. The one by four lengths was at Ascot last October.

Cecil is expecting Frankel to come on a good deal from his first race of the year, a prediction that should strike fear into the hearts of anyone willing to take on the champion.

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15/06/2012     © Frixo 2024