Valverde good odds to break away and win

Alejandro Valverde, a strong mountain climber who knows how to handle himself in a sprint, is the value play in the 14th stage of the Tour de France, a 191-kilometre ride from Limoux to Foix as the peloton reaches the Pyrenees.

Bookmakers have installed Vincenzo Nibali and Cadel Evans as the Stage 14 favourites, which is understandable since both the Italian and the Australian are running out of time to cut into the General Classification lead of Bradley Wiggins.

However, while bookmakers are correct not to quote fanciful odds about either Nibali or Evans being first across the line in Foix, you would want much bigger prices than the general 8-1 and 12-1 that are available about them.

That is because the profile of the 14th stage, while it includes three categorised climbs, does not lend itself to one of the General Classification contenders reducing the lead of Wiggins, who wears the yellow jersey with more than two minutes up his sleeve from his nearest challenger, Sky teammate Chris Froome. Nibali is two minutes and 23 seconds back in third. Evans is more than three minutes in arrears.

Stage 14`s third and final categorised climb peaks just shy of 40km from the Foix finish, which is a very long way for someone such as Nibali or Evans - most probably the Italian because he is a fearless descender who would rate among the top three cyclists in the world at hurtling down mountains - to stay ahead from the Sky road train protecting Wiggins.

Expect defensive riding from the General Classification men and look for a climber who is not a factor in the race for the yellow jersey to grab a piece of Tour de France glory.

Valverde fits the bill and is priced attractively at around the 20-1 mark. Winner of the the 2009 Vuelta a Espana, the Liege–Bastogne–Liege in 2006, 2008 and 2006 UCI ProTour series championship, the Spaniard is that rare cycling combination of an excellent climber and sprinter.

Back after serving his two-year ban as a consequence of the findings of the Operacion Puerto blood doping investigation, Valverde has yet to impose himself on this year`s Tour de France but the three-time stage winner has started to look good and the 14th stage could be the one that he targets.

Of course, there is no shortage of contenders on what is short odds to a breakaway day. Luis Leon Sanchez has been trying to rescue Rabobank`s miserable Tour de France and has had two stabs at winning a stage already. The Spaniard is available at around 14-1 but he is not the strongest in a sprint so Valverde makes more appeal at the current odds.

Sandy Casar has won three Tour de France stages during his lengthy career and he is a cyclist who can get himself into a breakaway and climb up the steepest of inclines. But the Frenchman is around the same price as Valverde and, again, the multi-talented Spaniard has a bit more going for him.

So it is Valverde at 20-1 to win Stage 14 on a day that the General Classification contenders will be looking to get through without losing time rather than looking to gain it.

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15/07/2012     © Frixo 2024