Bet against the crowd in Berne

International football friendlies before the major European competitions kick off make for a betting nightmare so keep stakes to an absolute minimum if you decide to get involved.

England plays Italy in Switzerland of all places and, with both countries set to field different teams from the ones that battled it out in the UEFA Euro 2012 quarter-finals, it is anyone`s guess as to how the meaningless match on the cusp of the English Premier League season will play out.

Guaranteed to be popular will be bets on a goalless draw, so devoid of genuine goal-scoring chances was the knockout game in Kyiv two months ago. Most bookmakers are trying to duck such wagers, with odds of 6-1 pretty common in the market.

However, with both England boss Roy Hodgson and Italy coach Cesare Prandelli ringing the changes - Hodgson wants to try a few things before the serious business of FIFA World Cup qualifying begins while Prandelli has not called up Juventus or Napoli stars because their clubs are playing each other in Beijing on Sunday - is there any reason to think that the Berne match will be a carbon copy of the Kyiv one?

One of the secrets to being a successful punter long term is picking one`s moments to go against the crowd. The wisdom is that England and Italy will play out a bore draw but surely there is a reasonable chance that two sides full of young and/or fringe players will throw caution to the wind in what is as close as one will get to a game that means nothing.

Instead of sitting there in front of the television praying that the ball does not go anywhere near either goal, why not have a small bet on England and Italy combining for more than two goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading at around 11-8.

Belgium and the Netherlands meet in one of the very few international friendlies that will get pulses racing and, based on recent head-to-head form, there is something of a value bet to be struck in the 125th Low Countries derby.

The Belgians are unbeaten in their last five matches versus the Dutch dating back to 1998, with four of them ending in draws. The Netherlands look under the odds to beat Belgium in Brussels at around 5-4 but what is the best play?

Probably backing the Belgians on an Asian Handicap market in receipt of a half-goal start, which is available at around 8-11, although one could argue that anything better than 9-4 about a draw in the capital of Belgium would be a good bet.

Among the other high-profile international friendlies taking place are Sweden against Brazil, Germany versus Argentina and Mexico against the United States of America.

The Brazilians have won their last three games versus the Swedes, all by 1-0 margins. The Germans and the Argentinians meet for their first time since the Germans romped to a 4-0 victory in the 2010 FIFA World Cup quarter-finals. And the Mexicans, who do not get the opportunity to entertain the Americans all that often, are unbeaten in four meetings.

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15/08/2012     © Frixo 2024