Premier League Preview

Not since the 1999-2000 season, when Kevin Phillips won the award, has the Premier League top scorer been won by a player not playing for one of the elite four of Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea. In fact in the last 11 seasons six of those to win the award have played for the eventual champions (though one was a tied winner).

Sergio Aguero, who is 8/1 (general) favourite, should get among the goals but the presence of Carlos Tevez, Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli means he might not be guaranteed playing time. In addition he might find himself used more for the Champions League, and Balotelli for the Premier League, as the season goes on. The wealth of striking options at City could be replicated at Utd. Rooney is the 9/1 (BetVictor) second favourite though he may forced to drop deeper if the club sign Van Persie (11/1-BetVictor-You Win).

Fernando Torres is the 10/1 (general) third favourite and he is the headline selection. Torres will benefit from the absence of Didier Drogba as he lines up front alone. The addition of creative talents, Eden Hazard and Marko Marin, alongside Juan Mata (who was second in assists last season behind David Silva) means he could be presented a number of opportunities. The Spaniard does not take penalties (Frank Lampard does) which is one thing negative, but Lampard himself is not guaranteed to feature in every game this season.

Carlos Tevez is next in line at 16/1 (general) and it is likely he will be among the goals in a full season. The Argentinian striker is not guaranteed playing time with Balotelli (22/1-You Win) and Eden Dzeko waiting in the wings. I can not have any of the three City strikers, in the same way I could not have Hernandez or Welbeck at Utd. Playing time will not be an issue though for Liverpool striker Luis Suarez who is also 16/1 (general). Suarez will be playing off Borini who is more of a link striker then an out and out goalscorer. The Uruguayan scored just 11 League goals last season though and he looks a little short. Darren Bent might appeal to some at 28/1 (Coral, You Win) but his injury problems must be a worry and it has been over three seasons since he last completed more than 22 games.

Papiss Cisse is available at 25/1 (general) and this would be my selection. The Senegal striker netted 13 in 14 league games and could carry that hot form into the new season. Cisse looks guaranteed a starting berth at Newcastle and makes plenty of each-way sense. Nikica Jelavic is another who appeals and the 33/1 (Betvictor/Coral) looks good value. The Croat netted nine in his 13 games for Everton after his January move. The signing of Steven Pienaar and the emergence of Leon Osman should offer him plenty of scoring chances.

At much bigger prices two players on the fringes of the England Squad stand out as great value, Norwich striker Grant Holt and Swansea striker Danny Graham. Holt netted 15 goals last season and continues to be overlooked by both Roy Hodgson and bookmakers who have him at 100/1 (BetVictor/ladbrokes). An even bigger priced 125/1 (BetVictor) is Danny Graham who grabbed 12 league goals last season and has looked in good form in pre-season.

One final market of note is that paddy Power are paying out on the club of the top scorer, Man City are the 11/4 favourites, Man Utd 3/1, Chelsea and Arsenal 9/2 and Liverpool 7/1.

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15/08/2012     © Frixo 2024