Premiership Relegations

Just 11 points seperated Bolton in 18th and West Brom in 10th last season and it promises to be another close season at the wrong end of the table. In my opinion anyone outside of the top eight teams last season could go down if the circumstances played wrong. If 40 points are the magic mark and the season is nine months long (that works out at 4.444) points per month of the campaign, easier to win on paper than on the pitch.

The favourites for the drop are promoted duo Southampton 11/8 (general) and Reading 11/8 (Bodog). Last season will have given these sides hope that they can follow in the footsteps of Norwich, Swansea and QPR. Both sides will be relying on good managers, organisation and hungry young players to keep them up. The prices seem to be about right as both will struggle, but there are hopeful signs for both clubs.

Norwich are the 13/8 (Totesport/betfred/Stan James) third favourites to finish bottom and some think the loss of Paul Lambert will see them struggle. Chris Hughton is a solid manager though and they have kept the services of all key players from last season including John Ruddy and Grant Holt. Norwich may not match the heights of last season, but at 13/8 look poor value for the drop. Wigan at 7/4 (paddy Power/Coral) could be anything under Martinez and are capable of such runs of form (good and bad) that make them a side to keep an eye on should the price to go down (or stay up) push very high.

Swansea at 9/4 (boylesports) are another side who have lost their influential manager and have also lost key midfielder Joe Allen. The Swans still have some talent though and the kind early fixture list gives them hope. West Ham are 47/20 (You Win) and I think they will struggle this season, only the good start of fixtures, the amount of money they have to spend and the chance that Harry Redknapp is waiting in the wings put me off tipping them for relegation.

So who would I recommend, I think in such an open market you have to take teams at a bigger price. West Brom at 4/1 (general) are my first choice, they could struggle after the loss of Roy Hodgson and this is the first campaign under new boss Steve Clarke. They have a tough start to the season so maybe back them at this price and look to lay them off as the price shortens and the fixtures ease a little in later months.

Stoke are 7/1(BetVictor/Blue Sq/888 Sport) and they had a terrible end to the season winning just one of the last 11 games. Some fans will blame the Europa League exploits to create a tired team, but what looked tired was the formation and tactics of Pulis as teams seemed to be coping with them. With Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd to play in their first eight games Stoke look a great back to lay price.

Sunderland had a season of three parts last season and it is hard to know which was the real Sunderland? The first part was the poor start under Steve Bruce, the second was the resurgence under Martin O’Neill, the third was the end of season slump. Any side ending the season with no wins in their last eight and with little investment in the summer transfer market and no real goalscorer must be advised at the price of 12/1 (BetVictor).

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15/08/2012     © Frixo 2024