Collateral form says Chargers are false favourites

San Diego has had Denver quarterback Peyton Manning`s number during his National Football League career but do not back the Chargers to beat the Broncos in Monday Night Football.

Bookmakers have pretty much invited punters to determine the favourite for the final match of Week Six, with very little to choose between the teams in the betting. For what it is worth, San Diego looks set to start as the most marginal of market leaders after a topsy-turvy week of line moves.

Some might say that the Chargers deserve to be favourites for their game against their American Football Conference West rivals. But they are others who will say that they are only 3-2 because of their soft early schedule - they have played Atlanta and Tennessee at home and visited Kansas City, New Orleans and Oakland - and that they should be distinct underdogs for their crunch divisional clash.

The Broncos have had a tough start to their Super Bowl XLVII journey and on lines through the Falcons and the Saints they have performed far more creditably than their Week Six opponents. They are worth exploring in greater detail.

Expert opinions vary regarding the points value of home field advantage in the National Football League but the general view is that three points is around the mark.

Denver lost 21-27 in Atlanta, whereas San Diego lost 3-27 to the Falcons in California. Therefore, one could rate the Broncos three points inferior to Atlanta, with the Chargers rated 27 points worse than the Falcons for a gap of 24.

Denver beat Oakland 37-6 at home, whereas San Diego beat the Raiders 22-14 on the road. Therefore, one could rate the Broncos 28 points superior to Oakland, with the Chargers rated 11 points better than the Raiders for a gap of 17.

Basing a statistical argument on such a small sample size is fraught with danger and, seriously, no-one is suggesting that Denver should be the 14-plus-point favourite for the Week Six finale. But it is easy to make a case for the Broncos being the market leader, which they are not.

The biggest turn-off for potential Denver punters is the dreadful record of its new quarterback versus San Diego.

Manning, the elder brother of New York Giants quarterback Eli, is a genuine National Football League superstar. He has been picked for 11 Pro Bowls and he won Super Bowl XLI with Indianapolis. He was voted the match`s most valuable player.

But Manning has not been good against the Chargers in recent years, losing five of his last half a dozen starts versus them, chucking 11 touchdown passes but a whopping 15 interceptions. He threw a career-high six interceptions against them in 2007 and four interceptions on the last occasion that he faced them, which was in 2010.

Manning, however, is a legendary quarterback and it may be worth siding with him given the form lines that favour the Broncos so strongly over their Californian opponents.

Back Denver to win at Qualcomm Stadium. A Broncos victory would put them 3-3 straight up and against the spread and, also, put San Diego on exactly the same SU and ATS numbers.

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15/10/2012     © Frixo 2024