Don`t ignore the obvious: Germany and goals in Kharkiv

Sometimes it pays not to over think punting and the Group B deciders in which Germany face Denmark and the Netherlands play Portugal throw up obvious betting opportunities.

The Germans and the Danes meet in Lviv, with the three-time European champions needing a draw to guarantee first place in the section and the shock 1992 winners requiring three points to ensure their progression. A draw will only be sufficient for Denmark if the Dutch beat the Portuguese.

On the evidence of Euro 2012 so far, there is a considerable gulf in class beween Germany and the Danes, with the latter looking particularly vulnerable at the back. Denmark let in three goals in losing a five-goal thriller to Portugal and would have conceded at least that number had the Netherlands not wasted chance after chance after chance in Kharkiv.

The Germans have been German-like in beating the Portuguese and the Dutch to put themselves in complete control of the tournament`s Group of Death and, if you think that Joachim Low will rest a heap of his team`s key players, think again. Germany is not through just yet and it will want to play its quarter-final tie in its base city of Gdansk in Poland.

Bookmakers have chalked up odds of around 4-6 about the Germans making it three wins from three games, which seems more than fair given what the two competing teams have delivered since the tournament kicked off a week ago.

Back Germany to defeat the Danes straight up but, in the Kharkiv clash between the Netherlands and Portugal, have an exotic punt on the match featuring more than 2.5 goals.

The equation for the Dutch to qualify for the last eight is simple: they must beat the Portuguese by at least two goals and hope that the Germans win the simultaneous game.

The mathematics for Portugal are more complicated but, with the Netherlands having no choice other than to go for broke pretty much from the first whistle, an open match that flows from penalty box to penalty box looks highly likely.

The Dutch may have scored only one goal in their first two Euro 2012 games but they have engineered a section-leading 15 clear-cut chances and forced 17 corner kicks. The Portuguese have had 17 corner kicks as well and had 11 opportunities to score, of which they have converted three.

The Netherlands and Portugal are the Group B entertainers - neither Germany nor Denmark has got into double figures when it comes to creating obvious openings - and the situation in which the Dutch and, to some extent, the Portuguese find themselves should have punters gambling on the over.

Surely it is only a matter of time before the Netherlands and in particular English Premier League golden boot Robin Van Persie hit their straps in front of goal. The Dutch, however, do not capable of keeping a clean sheet versus a high-octane Portugal attack featuring the world`s second best footballer, Cristiano Ronaldo. There is no shame in being number two to Lionel Messi. The guy is a genius.

Looking ahead to England`s Group D decider versus Ukraine, bookmakers have installed Roy Hodgson`s side as the match favourite at around the 6-5 mark. The Three Lions will reach the quarter-finals with either a win or a draw, while a loss may be enough if France lose even more heavily to Sweden.

Go To bet365

#Ad

16/06/2012     © Frixo 2024