Manchester clubs over the odds to finish one-two

Do not concern yourself with trying to decide which of the Manchester clubs will win this season`s English Premier League title - bet on the City-United dual forecast.

Instead of trying to choose between Manchester City at around 5-4 and Manchester United at around 9-4, settle for the odds-against prices available about them finishing first and second in the English Premier League in any order.

Bookmakers are offering around 5-4 about Manchester City and Manchester United placing one-two or two-one and those odds, even before Robin Van Persie decided to swap the Emirates Stadium for Old Trafford, looked remarkably big. Now they look larger than the police presence that the Netherlands striker will require when he plays for United at Arsenal.

Every English Premier League season it is the same as teams such as Liverpool and Tottenham kick off at ridiculously short championship odds. Quite why anyone would want to support the Reds at the 16-1 available from a couple of the United Kingdom`s biggest bookmakers is an absolute mystery. Liverpool finished eighth last term, 37 points behind both Manchester City and Manchester United, and will do well to break back into the English elite`s top half-a-dozen sides.

Manchester City and Manchester United racked up 89 English Premier League points apiece last season, 19 more than the team that took out third place, Arsenal. With the Gunners losing Van Persie to the Red Devils and all of the other sides with championship aspirations - Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham - not looking stronger than last term, surely it will be an incredible shock if City and United do not occupy the top two positions.

Odds of 5-4 equate to a 44 per cent chance of something happening. The true probability of Manchester City and Manchester United doing the English Premier League dual forecast for the second time in a row must be at least 70% and perhaps even greater than that. Nine months is a long time to wait for a 5-4 winner but one is getting 5-4 about an eventuality that should be 2-5 or even shorter.

Relegation betting is the next most popular of English Premier League futures markets and two teams stand out at the ante-post prices. First, there is Norwich at around 13-8. Paul Lambert has quit Carrow Road for Villa Park, leaving the Canaries without their inspirational boss, without him they look guaranteed to struggle big time.

Norwich conceded 66 English Premier League goals last season, which was more than any other side apart from those who were relegated. The Canaries did not manage to keep a single clean sheet away from their Norfolk home and their goal led a charmed life wherever they played, with their opponents hitting the woodwork a division-high 26 times.

Of the longer priced teams, Stoke look over the odds at 7-1 to be relegated from the English Premier League. No English top-flight side scored fewer goals than the Potters last term and their one-dimensional approach is going to come unstuck sooner or later. They do not have a plan B.

With all three promoted teams - Reading, Southampton and West Ham - capable of extending their English Premier League stay beyond one season, Norwich and Stoke could reward their relegation backers at around 13-8 and 7-1 respectively.

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16/08/2012     © Frixo 2024