Follow Toffees until they come unstuck at home

Everton`s English Premier League home record is so good that it makes sense to follow the Toffees until such time that they come unstuck at their Goodison Park fortress.

The David Moyes-managed team was one of the form English Premier League sides in the second half of last season, climbing up the ladder thanks to its home performances.

Everton has won its last five English Premier League home games and, if one goes back a little further in time, the Toffees have taken 24 Goodison Park points out a possible 27, losing only 0-1 to Arsenal in those nine matches.

No opposition player has scored at Everton`s home ground in a competitive game since Thomas Vermaelen won the game for the Gunners on 21 March 2012. Newcastle grabbed a late goal in last term`s corresponding English Premier League fixture but it was off the boot of Toffees defender Tony Hibbert.

Those are incredibly impressive statistics and the case for backing Everton to beat the Magpies at Goodison Park only gets stronger when one reviews Newcastle`s away results.

Alan Pardew`s team has not won any of its last three road games in all competitions, including May`s 1-3 loss to the Toffees on Merseyside in which the Magpies had 52 per cent of the ball but engineered just three efforts on target to the 10 of their hosts. Everton led from the 16th minute and went from strength to strength after Steven Pienaar scored.

Moyes and Pardew are well known for not being the best of friends, a rivalry that dates back to their times in the English lower leagues managing a couple of the country`s sleeping giants. Moyes was Preston boss from 1998 to 2002, while Pardew led Reading from 1999 to 2003 when the Royals were trying to get from the third tier to the top flight.

The competitive nature of matches between sides coached by Moyes and Pardew, combined with the electric atmosphere associated with Goodison Park games under floodlights, particularly standalone English Premier League clashes featuring a big-name visiting team, should make for a cracking 90 minutes of entertainment for the neutral.

What about the punter, though? Well, bookmakers have got Everton at odds of around 5-6 to improve upon its already good home record. That seems like a fair enough price.

In terms of exotics betting, there are correct-score and total-goals options that make appeal in the circumstances because the Toffees are tight at home and the Magpies, irrespective of location, have been finding it hard to create many creates per match for quite some time now.

A low-scoring Everton victory to nil seems the most likely result and, with bookmakers offering Everton 1-0 at around 6-1 and Everton 2-0 at around 8-1, one can back the two aforementioned scorelines at odds of just under 3-1.

With regards to total goals, Everton and Newcastle are around 5-6 to combine for fewer than three goals. A bet on under 2.5 goals appears to be a rational bet to make.

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16/09/2012     © Frixo 2024