Group C Matchday Three Preview

The Italians are worried, eight years ago they exited the Euro Championships after Sweden and Denmark played out a less than competitive 2-2 (a mutually beneficial result that saw both sides go through and the Italians knocked out). This time around their fate lies not in their own hand, but in the hands of the Spanish and the Croatians. A 2-2 draw would again see both Spain and Croatia through and the Italians out. Bookmakers are wary of this and make the 2-2 result an incredibly short 5/1(general). It remains to be seen if the Spanish and the Croatians do play out that result, but many reasons exist to think that the Spanish would be keen to win the game.

Though the Italians are worried, enough differences between the two situations exist to ease their worries a little. Spain are a better team than Croatia, a much better team, a drop in effort would be obvious. Also Spain must be weary that if they lose to Croatia then Croatia will move above them in the group. The difference is likely a match between the winners of Group D (likely France) or the runners-up (likely England). The Spanish are 4/5 (general) for the result and this looks very generous bearing in mind the gulf in class between these sides. Those who think Croatia can spring the shock can get 15/2 (BetVictor/Bodog/Coral) while the ’convinent’ draw is 15/8 (Coral).

Fernando Torres found his goalscoring form in the last game against the Republic of Ireland netting a brace and is 11/2 (bet365/BetVictor/Stan James) to grab the opener here. Mario Mandzukic has netted three goals for Croatia so far in this tournament and bookies are again underestimating the Wolfsburg forward by making him 12/1 (BetVictor/Stan James) to grab the opener.

In the Half Time/Full Time market you can get 4/1 (Stan James) Draw/Draw or 16/1 (Stan James) Draw/Span. The Croatia/Draw result is priced up at 14/1 (Stan James).

The Italians meanwhile must do their end of the business and beat the Republic of Ireland. At first this seems an easy task with bookmakers pricing them up at 3/10 (Coral). The Irish though will be looking to end a terrible campaign with a sense of pride and Italian manager Giovanni Trapattoni will know the Italian side as well as his own team. Those who think the Italians will come unstuck can get 5/1 (general) the draw or 11/1 (general) the Republic victory.

With the Italians likely to drop Mario Balotelli after a couple of disappointing performances Antonio Di Natale heads the market against a leaky Irish backline. He is 9/2 (general) while likely strike partner Antonio Cassano is 11/2 (bet365/BetVictor/Stan James). With the Irish likely to hold a tight back line it may pay to back runners from midfield coming into space rather than heavily watched forwards and Claudio Marchisio looks great value at 16/1 (Skybet/Stan James). Those who fancy the Irish to grab first goal might be interested in James McLean who could start his first game of the tournament and is a massive 40/1 (bet365/Stan James).

The Republic of Ireland have been leaking goals in this tournament and conceded seven goals in their two games so far. You can get 11/2 (general) a 2-0 Italy victory, 8/1 (Coral) a 3-0 victory and 14/1 (Coral) a 4-0 victory. The 1-1 draw is 11/2 (188bet) and a 1-0 Ireland victory is priced at 35/1 (188bet).

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17/06/2012     © Frixo 2024