Incorrect odds on correct scores in Gdansk

Euro 2012 Group C wraps up in Gdansk and Poznan and, not for the first time in European Championship history, all the talk going into the final round of a section concerns unconventional betting markets on one of the matches.

Spain versus Croatia is the game in question because a score draw of 2-2 or higher will result in both countries reaching the quarter-finals - the Spaniards as group winners and the Croatians as runners-up - and Italy and Ireland going out.

Bookmakers have the Spain-Croatia draw at around 7-4 - one would expect to see quotes of around 11-4 for a normal match between these teams - and, incredibly, the correct scores of 2-2, 3-3 and 4-4 at around 9-2, 14-1 and 50-1 respectively. Those are results on which punters can normally, to all intents and purposes, write their own tickets.

Punters are taking the vastly reduced odds on a high-scoring draw between the Spaniards and the Croatians because they have a precedent to follow: the Euro 2004 Group C game between Denmark and Sweden. A draw of 2-2 or higher was sufficient for the Danes and the Swedes to make the last eight and, in the process, eliminate the Italians. Yes, the Azzurri were the ones at the mercy of others then as well.

Denmark took the lead in the 28th minute through Jon Dahl Tomasson. Henrik Larsson equalised for Sweden from the penalty spot shortly after the break. Tomasson put the Danes back in front midway through the second half before Mattias Jonson levelled the scores at the death. The sides then played out stoppage time without threatening each other.

Anyone who watched the match will tell you that Denmark and Sweden did not collude to draw 2-2. Both teams went into the game with their sights set on all three points. It was only when the scoreline got to 2-2 with seconds remaining that the Danes and Swedes decided to scratch each other`s backs.

So, what should someone looking to have a financial interest in the Gdansk match do? To be honest, serious punters will not touch the game with a ten-foot bargepole. Spain is, at first glance, over the odds at around 4-5 but you must be able to find better odds-on bets than the Spaniards given the strange circumstances in which they find themselves.

If you must have a wager on the match, have a small one on one of the high-scoring draws but do so in the knowledge that you are, when all is said and done, getting ripped off.

The punters who backed Denmark and Sweden to draw 2-2 eight years ago - and there were lots of them, so much so that the scoreline went off at around 7-2 - made two and a half times their money and had a great punting story to tell but few of them kidded themselves into thinking that they were shrewd.

Italy has to beat the Irish in Poznan to have any chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals and, given the gulf in quality between the two sides - Ireland is, arguably, the weakest of the 16 tournament participants - bookmakers are correct to offer around 2-7 about an Azzurri victory.

The Italians will kick off aiming to register a big win and, therefore, some correct-score bets are in order. Split your stakes on 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 which, at the general prices available on those scorelines, work out at around 7-4.

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17/06/2012     © Frixo 2024