Bet its now not never for Nibali

The Tour de France resumes with an epic stage that looks tailor made for Italian cyclist Vincenzo Nibali on what promises to be a race-defining day in the Pyrenees.

The 197-kilometre ride from Pau to Bagneres-de-Luchon is going to separate the men from the boys and, with stages running out for General Classification contenders such as Cadel Evans, Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Nibali to reel in yellow jersey-wearing Bradley Wiggins and his Sky teammate, Chris Froome, one can expect fireworks in the mountains.

Stage 16, with its four testing climbs and 16km descent from the summit of the Col de Peyresourde to the finish, will not suit the overwhelming majority of the 156 riders still in the peloton but Nibali will love everything about it.

While just 22nd in the Mountains Classification, Nibali has not been dropped on any climb in this year`s Tour de France, only losing time to Wiggins and Froome in the two individual time trials, the prologue around Liege and the ninth stage.

And there is no better descender among the cyclists in the General Classification hunt than Nibali, who knows that he must be well in front of Wiggins and Froome before the final time trial to have any chance of adding this year`s Tour de France title to the Vuelta a Espana one that he won in 2010.

Nibali has built his 2012 program around having a real crack at winning the Tour de France and, having been critical of Wiggins and Froome at regular intervals over the past two and a half weeks, it is time for him to put up or shut up.

Expect Nibali to put up a huge fight on Stage 16 by taking it to Wiggins, Froome and everyone else with designs on the yellow jersey, softening up his rivals on the Col d`Aubisque before attacking on the Col du Tourmalet and applying even more pressure on the Col d`Aspin and Col de Peyresourde.

As strong as Wiggins is, the Briton`s weak point is that he cannot change rhythm quickly. If Nibali mixes it up on the 16th stage`s climbs he has an excellent chance of getting away from the cyclist in yellow. If Nibali does get away, what will Froome do? Will he stay loyal to his Sky team leader or will he abandon his colleague to track Nibali?

Froome may not win this year`s Tour de France but, arguably, he is the race`s strongest rider. The Kenya-born cyclist looked to have the beating of Wiggins on a mountain stage last week before Sky bosses ordered him to wait for the three-time Olympic Games gold medallist. How Froome reacts to Nibali`s inevitable attacks will be fascinating.

Bookmakers have installed Nibali as the Stage 16 favourite and he is freely available at 9-2. With the penultimate mountain stage almost guaranteed to be won by a General Classification contender, those odds are very fair. One would rather back the Italian at 9-2 than, say, Evans at 7-1, Van Den Broeck at 9-1 or Froome at 12-1. Wiggins is 16-1, at which price he is grossly under the odds.

Nibali is the rider to support, particularly as any stage after a rest day is a great time to go for broke. Cyclists talk about the phenomenon of blocked legs that sometimes hits them on the first day back in the saddle. If Wiggins and Froome are going to crack, Wednesday is the day.

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17/07/2012     © Frixo 2024