49ers may cover but get short of total points

Getting short of total points is the best play in the Week Seven opener between San Francisco and Seattle, two of the three teams with 4-2 records in the National Football Conference West division of the National Football League.

Las Vegas bookmakers started betting on the match with a spread of exactly seven points because even they did not know which way to jump on the divisional showdown. And punters who have bet early have been unable to decide between the 49ers and the Seahawks on the handicap line.

Even though both San Francisco and Seattle are in the National Football Conference West, there is a paucity of collateral form on which to ponder because they have had only one common opponent this season. The 49ers beat Green Bay 30-22 in Wisconsin and the Seahawks beat the Packers 14-12 in Washington. Awarding three points for home field advantage in those games and the Week Seven curtain raiser, one could argue that San Francisco should be the 15-point favourite for the visit of Seattle to Candlestick Park.

So, if one wants to bet against the spread, the 49ers are probably the way to go, particularly if the line moves from a flat seven to six and a half points, which would then put one of American football`s magic numbers on the side of favourite backers. That, however, is unlikely to happen.

The total points spread is around 37.5 points and, even at that relatively low level - the National Football League average is nine points higher - going under is the call.

The 49ers have the top-ranked defence and the Seahawks have the one ranked fourth. Digging deeper into the statistics, San Francisco has the best rushing offence but it is up against a Seattle team that has the second-best rushing defence. And neither side is terrific at passing the ball, with the 49ers ranked 26th and the Seahawks ranked 31st.

Home field advantage and a slightly superior passing game ought to be sufficient for San Francisco to beat Seattle for the fourth in a row but it looks like being a grind of a match in which the defences dominates the offences.

Another factor in recommending going under the total points line is the recent history of Thursday Night Football when teams are playing following an abbreviated break. There have been five such games this term, with the total points mean working out at 36.8 points. It is not a significant sample size but it is indicative of what appears to be a trend.

There are lots of trends that support the under play. For example, the under is 5-0 in the last five matches between the Seahawks and other National Football Conference sides, 5-1 in the last six Seahawks games and 6-2 in the last eight matches in which the Seahawks have been the away team. The under is 3-0-1 in the last four games in which the 49ers have played a side with a winning record and 4-0 in the last four matches in which the 49ers have been coming off a loss.

So, in summary, San Francisco should win the game and may cover the general seven-point spread but the best play is to bet on under 37.5 points in anticipation of a low-scoring match dominated by blunted running games and poor passing.

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17/10/2012     © Frixo 2024