England to qualify after dull Donetsk decider

England ought to be good enough to qualify for the Euro 2012 quarter-finals at the expense of Ukraine but the question is how best to go about making money from betting on it.

For the Donetsk decider, the English will welcome back their most lethal weapon, Wayne Rooney, whereas the Ukrainians are very likely to send out the source of most of their shots on target and goals, Andriy Shevchenko, on one leg - literally.

Rooney, available for selection after sitting out England`s matches versus France and Sweden as a consequence of his red card against Montenegro, will, provided that he can keep his cool, add another attacking dimension to Roy Hodgson`s team.

The English have fashioned only seven clear-cut chances in their games against the French and the Swedes, converting four of them, but Rooney`s return should enable them to increase their shots on target by a healthy percentage. To be honest, the only way is up for England in that regard.

Ukraine needs a fully fit Shevchenko to maximise its chance of reaching the last eight but the 35-year-old national hero has fluid on one of his battered knees and, even if he does take to the field, surely he will not be at his very best.

The Ukrainians, ranked 52nd in the world compared to the English in sixth, are dependent upon Shevchenko in the final third. The former Milan and Chelsea forward has had more than half of Ukraine`s shots on target in the tournament and single handedly defeated Sweden with two headed goals.

Moreover, the Ukrainians are usually seen at their best in counter-attacking mode, something that they may not get to do versus England. The English will sit back and ask their opponents to make the running because a draw will suit the 1966 world champions. Unless Ukraine can nick an early goal and put the onus on England to attack, the home side will be forced to press forward rather than the other way round.

The English, good on the break and with Rooney chomping at the bit to make up for his sending-off in the Balkans, may end up justifying match odds of around 6-5 comfortably.

But a better bet, one that has a number of ways of paying out, is on the match having fewer than three goals. The most recent meeting of the countries went under 2.5 goals, with the Ukrainians beating a 10-man England by a 1-0 margin.

The other Group D game, France against Sweden in Kyiv, should be a slam dunk for French, who only need a draw to progress but should be able to register a victory over the Swedes, for whom Zlatan Ibrahimovic is likely to have one of his off days because his team is out of the hunt already.

France is around 4-6 to beat Sweden by any scoreline and that seems like a fair price. Also of interest are the odds about the French winning without conceding a goal because they have given up very few chances in their Group D matches to date - two versus the English and three against Ukraine.

You can get around 2-1 about France winning to nil or you can have a go at some of the correct scores that feature the French keeping out Sweden. The 2-1 is more than reasonable.

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18/06/2012     © Frixo 2024