City value against Barca and Real in Champions League

English Premier League title holder Manchester City is the value against Spain`s big two, Barcelona and Real Madrid, in betting on this season`s UEFA Champions League tournament.

Bookmakers would have the average punter believe that it is a done deal and that either Barcelona or Real Madrid will win the 2012-2013 UEFA Champions League final at Wembley Stadium, with European football`s governing body awarding the championship match to the London ground in recognition of the English Football Association`s 150th anniversary.

Barcelona is around 5-2 to win this term`s UEFA Champions League and Real Madrid is around 9-2, which means that the odds of one of them winning the competition are not much bigger than 11-10. Surely it is not as simple as that.

After all, Spanish sides have won only three of the last 10 UEFA Champions League tournaments. Spain has supplied only three UEFA Champions League final participants in the last 10 competitions, which is two fewer than Italy and five fewer than England. And the Spanish La Liga dominance of Barcelona and Real Madrid, a consequence of them being very rich compared to their domestic counterparts, does not equip them for the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League in which the going gets tough and the tough get going.

No-one is saying that Barcelona and Real Madrid cannot win this season`s UEFA Champions League. But there are reasons over and above the aforementioned three why neither Barca nor Real represents a value betting proposition at the odds.

Barcelona is this term`s UEFA Champions League favourite in spite of coming up short in both the Spanish La Liga and the continental tournament last season, as well as changing its coach during the summer holidays. Pep Guardiola is going to be a hard act to follow and Tito Vilanova, who has not led a team outside Camp Nou, could fail to fill Pep`s big shoes.

Real Madrid has made its worst start to a Spanish La Liga campaign since 2001, picking up just four points from its first four games. The heat is on Jose Mourinho, who is under incredible pressure to deliver a 10th UEFA Champions League title to the Meringues. Fail and he will be out of the door.

It pays not to stray far off the path when betting on UEFA Champions League winners - teams from the English Premier League, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga have won the last eight editions - and of the obvious candidate it is Manchester City that makes the most appeal, not least because it opens up against Real Madrid in Spain.

Manchester City is around 10-1 to take out this term`s UEFA Champions League, probably two or three rolls longer than it would be if it had not been drawn in the same group as Ajax, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid. It is the Group of Death but City, as the strongest team in the strongest domestic league, should be good enough to get out of it unscathed.

Turning to UEFA Champions League exotics, Manchester United has drawn the softest group so Robin Van Persie, at around 16-1, is a value alternative to Barcelona`s Lionel Messi in top goal scorer betting. Messi is opposable at around 15-8.

With regards to the first UEFA Champions League matchday, there is a bit of 100-30 available about Real Madrid and Manchester City playing out a draw. With Real in crisis and City unbeaten this season, there is an obvious case to back the draw and the odds on offer are on the generous side.

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18/09/2012     © Frixo 2024