Pakistan overpriced to win ICC World Twenty20 again

There are few tougher betting assignments than international Twenty20 cricket but the 2012 edition of the ICC World Twenty20 has thrown up some interesting futures bets.

Held for the first time in South Africa five years ago, the 2012 ICC World Twenty20 from Tuesday 18 September to Sunday 7 October in Sri Lanka will be the fourth international championship of Twenty20 cricket after the tournament switched to even-numbered years back in 2010.

Because the game is so short, at least in cricket terms, Twenty20 matches can be a little bit of a lottery and this is particularly true in the international arena because the teams - the sport`s 10 Test-playing nations and two minnows, Afghanistan and Ireland - do not play together very often.

No national side has played more Twenty20 internationals during the current official rankings period than Pakistan and, also, it is the most successful team in the albeit short history of the ICC World Twenty20 event. Pakistan won the 2009 ICC World Twenty20 title in England after finishing runner-up to India in South Africa two years earlier.

In spite of the obvious things in Pakistan`s favour, which include playing conditions in Sri Lanka that are likely to suit it much more than most of the dozen sides, bookmakers have installed them as the sixth favourite at around 7-1, with only England of the supposedly major countries rated less likely to collect the ICC World Twenty20 trophy.

Pakistan is an enigmatic team but Twenty20 cricket lends itself to the Pakistani players. Of the big sides, the so-called Green Shirts make the most appeal at the odds.

India is the favourite to win this year`s ICC World Twenty20 because it is the home of the world`s most famous domestic Twenty20 competition and, consequently, its players have experienced lots of high-intensity, big-bash games. However, expectation is a burden and it could prove the undoing not only of the Indians but the Sri Lankans on home soil.

South Africa and West Indies are worthy of their places in this year`s ICC World Twenty20 betting market based on their recent performances and resulting rankings. The same cannot be said of Australia, which was ranked below Ireland at the beginning of this month. All of them, though, are worth passing over in favour of the Pakistanis at the odds.

There is no more interesting exotic betting market on this year`s ICC World Twenty20 than the one about the top run scorer. Brendon McCullum tops the current rankings but he plays for New Zealand and the Black Caps could fall at the first hurdle. That is why he is trading at around 33-1.

West Indies maverick Chris Gayle is ranked number two in the world and, therefore, he is the obvious favourite at around the 7-1 mark. But that is very short given how unpredictable Twenty20 cricket can be so ignore the outspoken big hitter.

The draw means that the best value probably lies in backing batsmen near the top of the England and India orders because Afghanistan is, on paper, the weakest of the dozen sides in this year`s ICC World Twenty20 but keep stakes small because the outcome of the toss can make or break such bets.

Two names leap off the page. Craig Kieswetter is around 33-1 even though he opens for England and ranks higher than all bar one of his teammates, while Suresh Raina is around 50-1 despite being India`s highest ranked batsman. Usually he comes to the crease after India loses its first wicket.

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18/09/2012     © Frixo 2024