Back the Queen to win the Prince of Wales`s Stakes

The Prince of Wales`s Stakes is the highlight of day two at Royal Ascot, with the horse whom Black Caviar has replaced in the hearts of Australian racing fans, So You Think, around the even-money mark to win the Group One event.

So You Think is a very interesting horse for any number of reasons, particularly the growing line of thinking among followers of European racing that he is, to use cricket parlance for a minute, a bit of a flat-track bully.

The two-time Cox Plate winner in his native land has raced 10 times since transferring from the Australian yard of Bart Cummings to the Irish year of Aidan O`Brien, winning on half of his racecourse appearance since swapping hemispheres.

What sticks out most when you inspect So You Think`s record is how he fares in comparison to the number of opponents that he faces. All of his five wins under O`Brien have come in races in which there has been fewer than seven runners. And all of his five losses as a member of the Ballydoyle team have come in races with more than six runners.

Moreover, one of the major reasons why So You Think failed in his attempt to complete the Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup double in 2010 - he won the Cox Plate and finished third in the Melbourne Cup - was because he did not settle in the 23-runner Flemington race and wasted a lot of energy.

Eleven runners are set to line up in the Prince of Wales`s Stakes over 10 furlongs and the size of the field alone may be sufficient for punters to oppose So You Think, either by laying him on the exchanges or backing one of his rivals.

The problem is that there is a dearth of quality opposition to So You Think, with the only genuine exception being the Queen`s horse, Carlton House, who is on the comeback trail after running third in the Epsom Derby as the 5-2 favourite.

Her Majesty`s best horse for many years won the Group Three Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown three weeks ago and, if Sir Michael Stoute has the four-year-old son of Street Cry at his optimum, then So You Think will be in big trouble.

Backing So You Think, particularly at odds on, does not make much appeal so the choice is between laying him or having a bet on Carlton House. Laying So You Think returns about evens, whereas backing Carlton House, who realistically looks the only one likely to upset the favourite, returns about 3-1, making the choice simple. Back the Queen`s horse.

The Wednesday of Royal Ascot has a total of four Group races - the Prince of Wales`s Stakes (Group One), Queen Mary Stakes (Group Two), Windsor Forest Stakes (Group Two) and Jersey Stakes (Group Three) - plus a couple of cracking handicaps that punters will spend hours trying to solve.

Like So You Think, O`Brien`s Reply looks like a favourite to oppose in the Jersey Stakes. He was sixth of nine on his only non-good start and he is unlikely to improve much considering that he has had seven starts already.

Sentaril from the William Haggas stable is two from two, with both of his emphatic victories coming on ground worse than good. She shapes as the one to beat but keep an eye on Aljamaaheer, especially if The Nile runs well on Tuesday.

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19/06/2012     © Frixo 2024